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Measuring the causal economic effects of scientific research : evidence from the staggered foundation of the SENAI innovation institutes in Brazil

Schubert, Torben LU ; Darold, Denilton LU and Will, Markus (2025) In Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 101.
Abstract

How to estimate the economic returns of public science is a longstanding but equally challenging topic in quantitative science studies. In this paper, we exploit the staggered foundation of the SENAI Innovation Institutes (ISI) in Brazil since 2012 to estimate their effects on GDP using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach. Building on historical and institutional insights from interviews on the foundation process, we unravel the conditions under which the parallel trends assumption is likely to hold. Our analysis reveals that these institutes significantly contribute to GDP per capita, with an average treatment effect of 985 BRL (approximately €160). Moreover, by relying on detailed project-level data, we were able to show that... (More)

How to estimate the economic returns of public science is a longstanding but equally challenging topic in quantitative science studies. In this paper, we exploit the staggered foundation of the SENAI Innovation Institutes (ISI) in Brazil since 2012 to estimate their effects on GDP using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach. Building on historical and institutional insights from interviews on the foundation process, we unravel the conditions under which the parallel trends assumption is likely to hold. Our analysis reveals that these institutes significantly contribute to GDP per capita, with an average treatment effect of 985 BRL (approximately €160). Moreover, by relying on detailed project-level data, we were able to show that the effects come almost exclusively from genuine research projects and not from the provision of scientific services, such as metrology. Finally, tentative calculations suggest that the SENAI ISI institutes may account for about 0.66 % of Brazil's overall GDP, emphasising the importance of applied science in regional economic development and providing insights into effective collaboration between research and industry.

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author
; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Economic effects, GDP per capita, Public research, SENAI ISI
in
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences
volume
101
article number
102287
pages
13 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:105011851808
ISSN
0038-0121
DOI
10.1016/j.seps.2025.102287
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
1ccc483e-3039-4cf8-86b7-06b1dcd810f5
date added to LUP
2025-09-22 11:33:22
date last changed
2025-09-30 11:25:21
@article{1ccc483e-3039-4cf8-86b7-06b1dcd810f5,
  abstract     = {{<p>How to estimate the economic returns of public science is a longstanding but equally challenging topic in quantitative science studies. In this paper, we exploit the staggered foundation of the SENAI Innovation Institutes (ISI) in Brazil since 2012 to estimate their effects on GDP using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach. Building on historical and institutional insights from interviews on the foundation process, we unravel the conditions under which the parallel trends assumption is likely to hold. Our analysis reveals that these institutes significantly contribute to GDP per capita, with an average treatment effect of 985 BRL (approximately €160). Moreover, by relying on detailed project-level data, we were able to show that the effects come almost exclusively from genuine research projects and not from the provision of scientific services, such as metrology. Finally, tentative calculations suggest that the SENAI ISI institutes may account for about 0.66 % of Brazil's overall GDP, emphasising the importance of applied science in regional economic development and providing insights into effective collaboration between research and industry.</p>}},
  author       = {{Schubert, Torben and Darold, Denilton and Will, Markus}},
  issn         = {{0038-0121}},
  keywords     = {{Economic effects; GDP per capita; Public research; SENAI ISI}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Socio-Economic Planning Sciences}},
  title        = {{Measuring the causal economic effects of scientific research : evidence from the staggered foundation of the SENAI innovation institutes in Brazil}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2025.102287}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.seps.2025.102287}},
  volume       = {{101}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}