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Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge

Zhu, Biqing ; Qiu, Chunjing ; Gasser, Thomas ; Ciais, Philippe ; Lamboll, Robin D. ; Ballantyne, Ashley P. ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Chaudhary, Nitin LU orcid ; Gallego-Sala, Angela V. and Guenet, Bertrand , et al. (2025) In One Earth 8.
Abstract
Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C–2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands’ net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands... (More)
Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C–2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands’ net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO2 (22–48 GtCO2). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16–60 GtCO2) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios. (Less)
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
in
One Earth
volume
8
article number
101353
pages
13 pages
publisher
Cell Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:105009646126
ISSN
2590-3330
DOI
10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
1f8a72ee-8011-4f82-b5c0-dad97e6efbbe
date added to LUP
2025-07-02 16:34:36
date last changed
2025-08-12 09:35:56
@article{1f8a72ee-8011-4f82-b5c0-dad97e6efbbe,
  abstract     = {{Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C–2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands’ net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO<sub>2</sub> (22–48 GtCO<sub>2</sub>). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16–60 GtCO<sub>2</sub>) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios.}},
  author       = {{Zhu, Biqing and Qiu, Chunjing and Gasser, Thomas and Ciais, Philippe and Lamboll, Robin D. and Ballantyne, Ashley P. and Chang, Jinfeng and Chaudhary, Nitin and Gallego-Sala, Angela V. and Guenet, Bertrand and Holden, Joseph and Joos, Fortunat and Kleinen, Thomas and Kwon, Min Jung and Melnikova, Irina and Müller, Jurek and Page, Susan and Salmon, Elodie and Schleussner, Carl Friedrich and Schurgers, Guy and Shrivastav, Gaurav P. and Shurpali, Narasinha J. and Tanaka, Katsumasa and Wårlind, David and Westermann, Sebastian and Xi, Yi and Zhang, Wenxin and Zhang, Yuan and Zhu, Dan}},
  issn         = {{2590-3330}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{07}},
  publisher    = {{Cell Press}},
  series       = {{One Earth}},
  title        = {{Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353}},
  volume       = {{8}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}