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Two-Step Approach for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes Risk

Abdul-Ghani, Muhammad A.; Abdul-Ghani, Tamam; Stern, Michael P.; Karavic, Jasmina; Tuomi, Tiinamaija LU ; Bo, Insoma; DeFronzo, Ralph A. and Groop, Leif LU (2011) In Diabetes Care 34(9). p.2108-2112
Abstract
OBJECTIVE-To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 non-diabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk.... (More)
OBJECTIVE-To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 non-diabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS-We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in high-risk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS-A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals. Diabetes Care 34:2108-2112, 2011 (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Diabetes Care
volume
34
issue
9
pages
2108 - 2112
publisher
American Diabetes Association
external identifiers
  • wos:000295195100038
  • scopus:84858606982
ISSN
1935-5548
DOI
10.2337/dc10-2201
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
07151614-f0be-4520-bcee-4ef0ad039afa (old id 2180208)
date added to LUP
2011-11-01 07:54:01
date last changed
2017-04-30 11:56:04
@article{07151614-f0be-4520-bcee-4ef0ad039afa,
  abstract     = {OBJECTIVE-To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 non-diabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS-We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in high-risk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS-A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals. Diabetes Care 34:2108-2112, 2011},
  author       = {Abdul-Ghani, Muhammad A. and Abdul-Ghani, Tamam and Stern, Michael P. and Karavic, Jasmina and Tuomi, Tiinamaija and Bo, Insoma and DeFronzo, Ralph A. and Groop, Leif},
  issn         = {1935-5548},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {9},
  pages        = {2108--2112},
  publisher    = {American Diabetes Association},
  series       = {Diabetes Care},
  title        = {Two-Step Approach for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes Risk},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2337/dc10-2201},
  volume       = {34},
  year         = {2011},
}