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Statistical atmospheric downscaling for rainfall estimation in Kyushu Island, Japan

Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi LU ; Olsson, Jonas LU ; Morita, Osamu ; Jinno, Kenji ; Kawamura, Akira ; Nishiyama, Koji ; Koreeda, Nobukazu and Nakashima, Takanobu (2001) In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 5(2). p.259-271
Abstract

The present paper develops linear regression models based on singular value decomposition (SVD) with the aim of downscaling atmospheric variables statistically to estimate average rainfall in the Chikugo River Basin, Kyushu Island, southern Japan, on a 12-hour basis. Models were designed to take only significantly correlated areas into account in the downscaling procedure. By using particularly precipitable water in combination with wind speeds at 850 hPa, correlation coefficients between observed and estimated precipitation exceeding 0.8 were reached. The correlations exhibited a seasonal variation with higher values during autumn and winter than during spring and summer. The SVD analysis preceding the model development highlighted... (More)

The present paper develops linear regression models based on singular value decomposition (SVD) with the aim of downscaling atmospheric variables statistically to estimate average rainfall in the Chikugo River Basin, Kyushu Island, southern Japan, on a 12-hour basis. Models were designed to take only significantly correlated areas into account in the downscaling procedure. By using particularly precipitable water in combination with wind speeds at 850 hPa, correlation coefficients between observed and estimated precipitation exceeding 0.8 were reached. The correlations exhibited a seasonal variation with higher values during autumn and winter than during spring and summer. The SVD analysis preceding the model development highlighted three important features of the rainfall regime in southern Japan: (1) the so-called Bai-u front which is responsible for the majority of summer rainfall. (2) the strong circulation pattern associated with autumn rainfall, and (3) the strong influence of orographic lifting creating a pronounced east-west gradient across Kyushu Island. Results confirm the feasibility of establishing meaningful statistical relationships between atmospheric state and basin rainfall even at time scales of less than one day.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Atmospheric downscaling, Precipitation, Rainfall, Singular value decomposition, Southern Japan
in
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
volume
5
issue
2
pages
13 pages
publisher
European Geophysical Society
external identifiers
  • scopus:0034871307
ISSN
1027-5606
DOI
10.5194/hess-5-259-2001
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
223f5225-f1d2-46b1-b5ae-8e06ddedb4dc
date added to LUP
2018-11-01 12:24:06
date last changed
2019-11-25 09:24:48
@article{223f5225-f1d2-46b1-b5ae-8e06ddedb4dc,
  abstract     = {<p>The present paper develops linear regression models based on singular value decomposition (SVD) with the aim of downscaling atmospheric variables statistically to estimate average rainfall in the Chikugo River Basin, Kyushu Island, southern Japan, on a 12-hour basis. Models were designed to take only significantly correlated areas into account in the downscaling procedure. By using particularly precipitable water in combination with wind speeds at 850 hPa, correlation coefficients between observed and estimated precipitation exceeding 0.8 were reached. The correlations exhibited a seasonal variation with higher values during autumn and winter than during spring and summer. The SVD analysis preceding the model development highlighted three important features of the rainfall regime in southern Japan: (1) the so-called Bai-u front which is responsible for the majority of summer rainfall. (2) the strong circulation pattern associated with autumn rainfall, and (3) the strong influence of orographic lifting creating a pronounced east-west gradient across Kyushu Island. Results confirm the feasibility of establishing meaningful statistical relationships between atmospheric state and basin rainfall even at time scales of less than one day.</p>},
  author       = {Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi and Olsson, Jonas and Morita, Osamu and Jinno, Kenji and Kawamura, Akira and Nishiyama, Koji and Koreeda, Nobukazu and Nakashima, Takanobu},
  issn         = {1027-5606},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {09},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {259--271},
  publisher    = {European Geophysical Society},
  series       = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  title        = {Statistical atmospheric downscaling for rainfall estimation in Kyushu Island, Japan},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-259-2001},
  doi          = {10.5194/hess-5-259-2001},
  volume       = {5},
  year         = {2001},
}