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A benefit analysis of screening for invasive species - base-rate uncertainty and the value of information

Sahlin, Ullrika LU ; Rydén, Tobias LU ; Nyberg, Cecilia D. and Smith, Henrik LU (2011) In Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2(5). p.500-508
Abstract
1.. Implementation of the full spectra of screening tools to prevent the introduction of invasive species results in a need to evaluate the cost-efficiency of gathering the information needed to screen for these species. 2. We show how the Bayesian value of information approach can be used to derive the benefit of a screening model based on species traits, which in combination with the base rate of invasiveness, i.e. the proportion of invasive species among those introduced and established, predicts species-specific invasiveness. 3. A pre-posterior Bayesian analysis demonstrated that the benefit of the screening model of invasiveness depends on both the accuracy in predictions and the uncertainty in the base rate of invasiveness. However,... (More)
1.. Implementation of the full spectra of screening tools to prevent the introduction of invasive species results in a need to evaluate the cost-efficiency of gathering the information needed to screen for these species. 2. We show how the Bayesian value of information approach can be used to derive the benefit of a screening model based on species traits, which in combination with the base rate of invasiveness, i.e. the proportion of invasive species among those introduced and established, predicts species-specific invasiveness. 3. A pre-posterior Bayesian analysis demonstrated that the benefit of the screening model of invasiveness depends on both the accuracy in predictions and the uncertainty in the base rate of invasiveness. However, even though increasing model accuracy always generates higher model benefit, acknowledging or neglecting the uncertainty in the base rate of invasiveness does not. This means that uncertainty in the base rate is important to consider in the cost-benefit analysis of the screening model. 4. As an example, we derived the benefit of basing decisions on a screening model trained for a data set on species traits of invasive and non-invasive marine macroalgae introduced into Europe. The benefit ranged from 0.6% to 19% of the loss of introducing an invasive species, where the actual value can be estimated if we know the monetary values of impacts from introducing invasive and not introducing non-invasive species. 5. Cost-benefit analyses of screening models for invasive species is one means to reach efficient management of the risks of non-indigenous species. Value of information is a useful tool for benefit analysis of predictive models with respect to decision-making, which goes beyond the investigations of model accuracy. Here, we use value of information analysis to evaluate which sources of uncertainty that is most worth while to reduce and how to set the cost of gathering further species-specific information which will improve the accuracy of a screening. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
accuracy, base-rate effect, Bayesian, pre-posterior, probabilistic, risk assessment, uncertainty, value of information
in
Methods in Ecology and Evolution
volume
2
issue
5
pages
500 - 508
publisher
British Ecology Society / John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
external identifiers
  • wos:000297323700008
  • scopus:84867662578
ISSN
2041-210X
DOI
10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00097.x
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2c1c5e66-3d67-4d7b-a6c8-c4f1bedb0a37 (old id 2271992)
date added to LUP
2011-12-29 14:32:40
date last changed
2017-05-21 03:59:51
@article{2c1c5e66-3d67-4d7b-a6c8-c4f1bedb0a37,
  abstract     = {1.. Implementation of the full spectra of screening tools to prevent the introduction of invasive species results in a need to evaluate the cost-efficiency of gathering the information needed to screen for these species. 2. We show how the Bayesian value of information approach can be used to derive the benefit of a screening model based on species traits, which in combination with the base rate of invasiveness, i.e. the proportion of invasive species among those introduced and established, predicts species-specific invasiveness. 3. A pre-posterior Bayesian analysis demonstrated that the benefit of the screening model of invasiveness depends on both the accuracy in predictions and the uncertainty in the base rate of invasiveness. However, even though increasing model accuracy always generates higher model benefit, acknowledging or neglecting the uncertainty in the base rate of invasiveness does not. This means that uncertainty in the base rate is important to consider in the cost-benefit analysis of the screening model. 4. As an example, we derived the benefit of basing decisions on a screening model trained for a data set on species traits of invasive and non-invasive marine macroalgae introduced into Europe. The benefit ranged from 0.6% to 19% of the loss of introducing an invasive species, where the actual value can be estimated if we know the monetary values of impacts from introducing invasive and not introducing non-invasive species. 5. Cost-benefit analyses of screening models for invasive species is one means to reach efficient management of the risks of non-indigenous species. Value of information is a useful tool for benefit analysis of predictive models with respect to decision-making, which goes beyond the investigations of model accuracy. Here, we use value of information analysis to evaluate which sources of uncertainty that is most worth while to reduce and how to set the cost of gathering further species-specific information which will improve the accuracy of a screening.},
  author       = {Sahlin, Ullrika and Rydén, Tobias and Nyberg, Cecilia D. and Smith, Henrik},
  issn         = {2041-210X},
  keyword      = {accuracy,base-rate effect,Bayesian,pre-posterior,probabilistic,risk assessment,uncertainty,value of information},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {5},
  pages        = {500--508},
  publisher    = {British Ecology Society / John Wiley & Sons, Inc.},
  series       = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
  title        = {A benefit analysis of screening for invasive species - base-rate uncertainty and the value of information},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00097.x},
  volume       = {2},
  year         = {2011},
}