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Trend analysis for rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai, India

Rana, Arun LU ; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia LU ; Bengtsson, Lars LU and Sarthi, P. Parth (2012) In Climate Dynamics 38(1-2). p.45-56
Abstract
Urbanisation has burdened cities with many problems associated with growth and the physical environment. Some of the urban locations in India are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards related to precipitation and flooding. Thus it becomes increasingly important to study the characteristics of these events and their physical explanation. This work studies rainfall trends in Delhi and Mumbai, the two biggest Metropolitan cities of Republic of India, during the period from 1951 to 2004. Precipitation data was studied on basis of months, seasons and years, and the total period divided in the two different time periods of 1951-1980 and 1981-2004 for detailed analysis. Long-term trends in rainfall were determined by Man-Kendall... (More)
Urbanisation has burdened cities with many problems associated with growth and the physical environment. Some of the urban locations in India are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards related to precipitation and flooding. Thus it becomes increasingly important to study the characteristics of these events and their physical explanation. This work studies rainfall trends in Delhi and Mumbai, the two biggest Metropolitan cities of Republic of India, during the period from 1951 to 2004. Precipitation data was studied on basis of months, seasons and years, and the total period divided in the two different time periods of 1951-1980 and 1981-2004 for detailed analysis. Long-term trends in rainfall were determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear regression. Further this study seeks for an explanation for precipitation trends during monsoon period by different global climate phenomena. Principal component analysis and Singular value decomposition were used to find relation between southwest monsoon precipitation and global climatic phenomena using climatic indices. Most of the rainfall at both the stations was found out to be taking place in Southwest monsoon season. The analysis revealed great degree of variability in precipitation at both stations. There is insignificant decrease in long term southwest monsoon rainfall over Delhi and slight significant decreasing trends for long term southwest monsoon rainfall in Mumbai. Decrease in average maximum rainfall in a day was also indicated by statistical analysis for both stations. Southwest monsoon precipitation in Delhi was found directly related to Scandinavian Pattern and East Atlantic/West Russia and inversely related to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas precipitation in Mumbai was found inversely related to Indian ocean dipole, El Nio- Southern Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Urbanization, India, Statistical analysis, Man-Kendall, Climate indices, Principal component analysis, Singular value decomposition
in
Climate Dynamics
volume
38
issue
1-2
pages
45 - 56
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000298753200003
  • scopus:84855274651
ISSN
1432-0894
DOI
10.1007/s00382-011-1083-4
project
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
26e00369-4908-4eb2-9df9-239620f449cd (old id 2358443)
date added to LUP
2012-02-24 08:24:34
date last changed
2017-09-24 03:09:35
@article{26e00369-4908-4eb2-9df9-239620f449cd,
  abstract     = {Urbanisation has burdened cities with many problems associated with growth and the physical environment. Some of the urban locations in India are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards related to precipitation and flooding. Thus it becomes increasingly important to study the characteristics of these events and their physical explanation. This work studies rainfall trends in Delhi and Mumbai, the two biggest Metropolitan cities of Republic of India, during the period from 1951 to 2004. Precipitation data was studied on basis of months, seasons and years, and the total period divided in the two different time periods of 1951-1980 and 1981-2004 for detailed analysis. Long-term trends in rainfall were determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear regression. Further this study seeks for an explanation for precipitation trends during monsoon period by different global climate phenomena. Principal component analysis and Singular value decomposition were used to find relation between southwest monsoon precipitation and global climatic phenomena using climatic indices. Most of the rainfall at both the stations was found out to be taking place in Southwest monsoon season. The analysis revealed great degree of variability in precipitation at both stations. There is insignificant decrease in long term southwest monsoon rainfall over Delhi and slight significant decreasing trends for long term southwest monsoon rainfall in Mumbai. Decrease in average maximum rainfall in a day was also indicated by statistical analysis for both stations. Southwest monsoon precipitation in Delhi was found directly related to Scandinavian Pattern and East Atlantic/West Russia and inversely related to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas precipitation in Mumbai was found inversely related to Indian ocean dipole, El Nio- Southern Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern.},
  author       = {Rana, Arun and Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia and Bengtsson, Lars and Sarthi, P. Parth},
  issn         = {1432-0894},
  keyword      = {Urbanization,India,Statistical analysis,Man-Kendall,Climate indices,Principal component analysis,Singular value decomposition},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1-2},
  pages        = {45--56},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Climate Dynamics},
  title        = {Trend analysis for rainfall in Delhi and Mumbai, India},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1083-4},
  volume       = {38},
  year         = {2012},
}