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Forecasting monthly precipitation in Central Chile: a self-organizing map approach using filtered sea surface temperature

Rivera, Diego; Lillo, Mario; Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia LU ; Billib, Max and Luis Arumi, Jose (2012) In Theoretical and Applied Climatology 107(1-2). p.1-13
Abstract
Western South America is subject to considerable inter-annual variability due to El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) so forecasting inter-annual variations associated with ENSO would provide an opportunity to tailor management decisions more appropriately to the season. On one hand, the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is a suitable technique to explore the association between sea surface temperature and precipitation fields. On the other hand, Wavelet transform is a filtering technique, which allows the identification of relevant frequencies in signals, and also allows localization on time. Taking advantage of both methods, we present a method to forecast monthly precipitation using the SOM trained with filtered SST anomalies. The use of... (More)
Western South America is subject to considerable inter-annual variability due to El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) so forecasting inter-annual variations associated with ENSO would provide an opportunity to tailor management decisions more appropriately to the season. On one hand, the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is a suitable technique to explore the association between sea surface temperature and precipitation fields. On the other hand, Wavelet transform is a filtering technique, which allows the identification of relevant frequencies in signals, and also allows localization on time. Taking advantage of both methods, we present a method to forecast monthly precipitation using the SOM trained with filtered SST anomalies. The use of the SOM to forecast precipitation for Chillan showed good agreement between forecasted and measured values, with correlation coefficients (r (2)) ranging from 0.72 to 0.91, making the combined use filtered SST fields and SOM a suitable tool to assist water management, for example in agricultural water management. The method can be easily tailored to be applied in other stations or to other variables. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
volume
107
issue
1-2
pages
1 - 13
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000298999300001
  • scopus:84855528144
ISSN
1434-4483
DOI
10.1007/s00704-011-0453-5
project
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
8107c9e1-515b-411d-a6d0-681f05bd70ff (old id 2358494)
date added to LUP
2012-02-24 08:01:49
date last changed
2017-05-07 04:02:30
@article{8107c9e1-515b-411d-a6d0-681f05bd70ff,
  abstract     = {Western South America is subject to considerable inter-annual variability due to El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) so forecasting inter-annual variations associated with ENSO would provide an opportunity to tailor management decisions more appropriately to the season. On one hand, the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is a suitable technique to explore the association between sea surface temperature and precipitation fields. On the other hand, Wavelet transform is a filtering technique, which allows the identification of relevant frequencies in signals, and also allows localization on time. Taking advantage of both methods, we present a method to forecast monthly precipitation using the SOM trained with filtered SST anomalies. The use of the SOM to forecast precipitation for Chillan showed good agreement between forecasted and measured values, with correlation coefficients (r (2)) ranging from 0.72 to 0.91, making the combined use filtered SST fields and SOM a suitable tool to assist water management, for example in agricultural water management. The method can be easily tailored to be applied in other stations or to other variables.},
  author       = {Rivera, Diego and Lillo, Mario and Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia and Billib, Max and Luis Arumi, Jose},
  issn         = {1434-4483},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1-2},
  pages        = {1--13},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  title        = {Forecasting monthly precipitation in Central Chile: a self-organizing map approach using filtered sea surface temperature},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0453-5},
  volume       = {107},
  year         = {2012},
}