Time Varying Parameters in Exchange Rate Models
(1997) In Lund Economic Studies 67. Abstract
 This thesis consists of five papers on different aspects of parametervariation in some common exchange rate models.The first paper investigates the stability in the real exchange rate, witch is equivalent to purchasing power parity (PPP). In recent empirical literature on purchasing power parity, the focus has been on the stationarity of real exchange rates, instead of strict constancy. Earlier studies have either tested the null hypothesis of stationarity, or tested the null hypothesis of nonstationarity. This paper, finds that the conclusion that PPP does not hold, i.e. that real exchange rates are non stationary, does not depend on which hypothesis is the null. It is found that, when using data from three major OECD countries, the... (More)
 This thesis consists of five papers on different aspects of parametervariation in some common exchange rate models.The first paper investigates the stability in the real exchange rate, witch is equivalent to purchasing power parity (PPP). In recent empirical literature on purchasing power parity, the focus has been on the stationarity of real exchange rates, instead of strict constancy. Earlier studies have either tested the null hypothesis of stationarity, or tested the null hypothesis of nonstationarity. This paper, finds that the conclusion that PPP does not hold, i.e. that real exchange rates are non stationary, does not depend on which hypothesis is the null. It is found that, when using data from three major OECD countries, the general conclusion is that a null hypothesis of the absence of PPP cannot be rejected and that a null hypothesis of the presence of PPP can be rejected. The second paper utilizes some tests, proposed in the literature, to investigate if there is significant variation of the parameters in monetary exchange rate models, using data from six large OECD countries. The findings are that in all cases significant parameter variation can be found. The third paper examins how exchange rate variation affects international trade, by utilizing a recently proposed exponential GARCH technique with a multivariate setup. The findings in this study are that, when using data from three large OECD countries, there is no significant relationship between exchange rate variation and international trade, in general. The only significant effect found, is a positive impact of exchange rate variation on the growth of the UK's international trade. The fourth paper aims at investigating the time varying volatility in the 14 potential EMU countries exchange rates versus the US dollar and how this volatility is generated. The volatilities are estimated in a multivariate stochastic volatility model and the decomposed into principal components. The findings are that a tentative explanation for the two most important components of the volatility can be to what extent a currency is a core currency in Europe, and the degree of expansion in the monetary policy. It is also found that the volatility hits Europe in a non symmetric fashion. Some support is also found for the idea of initiating the EMU at two speeds, that a group of core countries initially forms a monetary union and that the remaining countries follows when convergence is done. The fifth paper studies the relationship between exchange rate variation and variation in interest rate differentials in, using SwedishUs data. The data is split into two subsamples covering a period of fixed exchange rate regime and a period of a floating exchange rate regime. The area of particular interest is whether there is a trade off between variability in the exchange rate and variability in interest rate differentials. The problem is studied by estimating a multivariate GARCH model. The findings are that there seems to be no clear tradeoff within regimes, while there seems to be a significant tradeoff between the two regimes. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/record/29410
 author
 Henricsson, Richard ^{LU}
 supervisor
 opponent

 Professor Newbold, Paul, Dept. of Economics, Nottingham University, Nottingham, England.
 organization
 publishing date
 1997
 type
 Thesis
 publication status
 published
 subject
 keywords
 economic systems, economic theory, econometrics, Economics, stochastich volatility., purchasing power parity, GARCH, exchange rates, Stationarity, economic policy, Nationalekonomi, ekonometri, ekonomisk teori, ekonomiska system, ekonomisk politik
 in
 Lund Economic Studies
 volume
 67
 pages
 119 pages
 publisher
 Department of Economics, Lund Universtiy
 defense location
 Crafoordsalen, Ekonomicentrum 1.
 defense date
 19970607 10:15
 external identifiers

 other:ISRN: LUSADG/SANA97/1049SE
 ISSN
 04600029
 language
 English
 LU publication?
 yes
 id
 24f7d93cb79f45e3921fed69902bae73 (old id 29410)
 date added to LUP
 20070612 14:44:31
 date last changed
 20181121 20:35:28
@phdthesis{24f7d93cb79f45e3921fed69902bae73, abstract = {This thesis consists of five papers on different aspects of parametervariation in some common exchange rate models.The first paper investigates the stability in the real exchange rate, witch is equivalent to purchasing power parity (PPP). In recent empirical literature on purchasing power parity, the focus has been on the stationarity of real exchange rates, instead of strict constancy. Earlier studies have either tested the null hypothesis of stationarity, or tested the null hypothesis of nonstationarity. This paper, finds that the conclusion that PPP does not hold, i.e. that real exchange rates are non stationary, does not depend on which hypothesis is the null. It is found that, when using data from three major OECD countries, the general conclusion is that a null hypothesis of the absence of PPP cannot be rejected and that a null hypothesis of the presence of PPP can be rejected. The second paper utilizes some tests, proposed in the literature, to investigate if there is significant variation of the parameters in monetary exchange rate models, using data from six large OECD countries. The findings are that in all cases significant parameter variation can be found. The third paper examins how exchange rate variation affects international trade, by utilizing a recently proposed exponential GARCH technique with a multivariate setup. The findings in this study are that, when using data from three large OECD countries, there is no significant relationship between exchange rate variation and international trade, in general. The only significant effect found, is a positive impact of exchange rate variation on the growth of the UK's international trade. The fourth paper aims at investigating the time varying volatility in the 14 potential EMU countries exchange rates versus the US dollar and how this volatility is generated. The volatilities are estimated in a multivariate stochastic volatility model and the decomposed into principal components. The findings are that a tentative explanation for the two most important components of the volatility can be to what extent a currency is a core currency in Europe, and the degree of expansion in the monetary policy. It is also found that the volatility hits Europe in a non symmetric fashion. Some support is also found for the idea of initiating the EMU at two speeds, that a group of core countries initially forms a monetary union and that the remaining countries follows when convergence is done. The fifth paper studies the relationship between exchange rate variation and variation in interest rate differentials in, using SwedishUs data. The data is split into two subsamples covering a period of fixed exchange rate regime and a period of a floating exchange rate regime. The area of particular interest is whether there is a trade off between variability in the exchange rate and variability in interest rate differentials. The problem is studied by estimating a multivariate GARCH model. The findings are that there seems to be no clear tradeoff within regimes, while there seems to be a significant tradeoff between the two regimes.}, author = {Henricsson, Richard}, issn = {04600029}, keyword = {economic systems,economic theory,econometrics,Economics,stochastich volatility.,purchasing power parity,GARCH,exchange rates,Stationarity,economic policy,Nationalekonomi,ekonometri,ekonomisk teori,ekonomiska system,ekonomisk politik}, language = {eng}, pages = {119}, publisher = {Department of Economics, Lund Universtiy}, school = {Lund University}, series = {Lund Economic Studies}, title = {Time Varying Parameters in Exchange Rate Models}, volume = {67}, year = {1997}, }