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Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator.

Flores, Xavier LU ; Gernaey, Krist V and Jeppsson, Ulf LU (2012) In Water Science and Technology 65(11). p.1912-1922
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weather files describing diurnal, weekend and seasonal variations through the combination of different generic model blocks, i.e. households, industry, rainfall and infiltration. The GSA is carried out by combining Monte Carlo simulations and standardized regression coefficients (SRC). Cluster analysis is then applied, classifying the influence of the model parameters into strong, medium and weak. The results show that the method is able to decompose... (More)
This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weather files describing diurnal, weekend and seasonal variations through the combination of different generic model blocks, i.e. households, industry, rainfall and infiltration. The GSA is carried out by combining Monte Carlo simulations and standardized regression coefficients (SRC). Cluster analysis is then applied, classifying the influence of the model parameters into strong, medium and weak. The results show that the method is able to decompose the variance of the model predictions (R(2)> 0.9) satisfactorily, thus identifying the model parameters with strongest impact on several flow rate descriptors calculated at different time resolutions. Catchment size (PE) and the production of wastewater per person equivalent (QperPE) are two parameters that strongly influence the yearly average dry weather flow rate and its variability. Wet weather conditions are mainly affected by three parameters: (1) the probability of occurrence of a rain event (Llrain); (2) the catchment size, incorporated in the model as a parameter representing the conversion from mm rain · day(-1) to m(3) · day(-1) (Qpermm); and, (3) the quantity of rain falling on permeable areas (aH). The case study also shows that in both dry and wet weather conditions the SRC ranking changes when the time scale of the analysis is modified, thus demonstrating the potential to identify the effect of the model parameters on the fast/medium/slow dynamics of the flow rate. The paper ends with a discussion on the interpretation of GSA results and of the advantages of using synthetic dynamic flow rate data for WWTP influent scenario generation. This section also includes general suggestions on how to use the proposed methodology to any influent generator to adapt the created time series to a modeller's demands. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Water Science and Technology
volume
65
issue
11
pages
1912 - 1922
publisher
IWA Publishing
external identifiers
  • wos:000305374400002
  • pmid:22592459
  • scopus:84861737320
ISSN
0273-1223
DOI
10.2166/wst.2012.089
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e5d908e3-040f-4a59-802c-26a0b3863f4a (old id 2608786)
date added to LUP
2012-06-04 14:40:28
date last changed
2017-01-01 05:59:30
@article{e5d908e3-040f-4a59-802c-26a0b3863f4a,
  abstract     = {This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weather files describing diurnal, weekend and seasonal variations through the combination of different generic model blocks, i.e. households, industry, rainfall and infiltration. The GSA is carried out by combining Monte Carlo simulations and standardized regression coefficients (SRC). Cluster analysis is then applied, classifying the influence of the model parameters into strong, medium and weak. The results show that the method is able to decompose the variance of the model predictions (R(2)> 0.9) satisfactorily, thus identifying the model parameters with strongest impact on several flow rate descriptors calculated at different time resolutions. Catchment size (PE) and the production of wastewater per person equivalent (QperPE) are two parameters that strongly influence the yearly average dry weather flow rate and its variability. Wet weather conditions are mainly affected by three parameters: (1) the probability of occurrence of a rain event (Llrain); (2) the catchment size, incorporated in the model as a parameter representing the conversion from mm rain · day(-1) to m(3) · day(-1) (Qpermm); and, (3) the quantity of rain falling on permeable areas (aH). The case study also shows that in both dry and wet weather conditions the SRC ranking changes when the time scale of the analysis is modified, thus demonstrating the potential to identify the effect of the model parameters on the fast/medium/slow dynamics of the flow rate. The paper ends with a discussion on the interpretation of GSA results and of the advantages of using synthetic dynamic flow rate data for WWTP influent scenario generation. This section also includes general suggestions on how to use the proposed methodology to any influent generator to adapt the created time series to a modeller's demands.},
  author       = {Flores, Xavier and Gernaey, Krist V and Jeppsson, Ulf},
  issn         = {0273-1223},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {11},
  pages        = {1912--1922},
  publisher    = {IWA Publishing},
  series       = {Water Science and Technology},
  title        = {Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2012.089},
  volume       = {65},
  year         = {2012},
}