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The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

Dubois, G.; Peeters, P.; Ceron, J. P. and Gössling, Stefan LU (2011) In Transportation Research. Part A: Policy & Practice 45(10). p.1031-1042
Abstract
Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO(2) emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and "avoiding dangerous climate change" objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of -50% to -80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based... (More)
Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO(2) emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and "avoiding dangerous climate change" objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of -50% to -80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Backcasting, Scenarios, Mitigation, Climate change, Tourism, Mobility
in
Transportation Research. Part A: Policy & Practice
volume
45
issue
10
pages
1031 - 1042
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000297523600004
  • scopus:80054019750
ISSN
0965-8564
DOI
10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
fd7bee1c-5117-4562-9405-eb4dfbc172d9 (old id 2799343)
date added to LUP
2012-06-19 14:48:48
date last changed
2017-10-22 04:03:45
@article{fd7bee1c-5117-4562-9405-eb4dfbc172d9,
  abstract     = {Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO(2) emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and "avoiding dangerous climate change" objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of -50% to -80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Dubois, G. and Peeters, P. and Ceron, J. P. and Gössling, Stefan},
  issn         = {0965-8564},
  keyword      = {Backcasting,Scenarios,Mitigation,Climate change,Tourism,Mobility},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {10},
  pages        = {1031--1042},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Transportation Research. Part A: Policy & Practice},
  title        = {The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004},
  volume       = {45},
  year         = {2011},
}