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Characterization of Regional-Scale CO2 Transport Uncertainties in an Ensemble with Flow-Dependent Transport Errors

Chen, Hans W. LU ; Zhang, Fuqing ; Lauvaux, Thomas ; Davis, Kenneth J. ; Feng, Sha ; Butler, Martha P. and Alley, Richard B. (2019) In Geophysical Research Letters 46(7). p.4049-4058
Abstract

Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional-scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow-dependent transport errors. During a 1-month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3-hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport... (More)

Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional-scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow-dependent transport errors. During a 1-month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3-hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO2 uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO2 background uncertainties is especially large for column-averaged CO2. These results suggest that transport errors and CO2 background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems.

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author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Geophysical Research Letters
volume
46
issue
7
pages
10 pages
publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
external identifiers
  • scopus:85064534237
ISSN
0094-8276
DOI
10.1029/2018GL081341
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2a728aa4-e984-4f53-8ebb-5d034954d9df
date added to LUP
2019-11-13 16:16:20
date last changed
2022-04-18 18:51:11
@article{2a728aa4-e984-4f53-8ebb-5d034954d9df,
  abstract     = {{<p>Inference of CO<sub>2</sub> surface fluxes using atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional-scale CO<sub>2</sub> transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow-dependent transport errors. During a 1-month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO<sub>2</sub> at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO<sub>2</sub> uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3-hourly natural CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO<sub>2</sub> uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO<sub>2</sub> background uncertainties is especially large for column-averaged CO<sub>2</sub>. These results suggest that transport errors and CO<sub>2</sub> background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems.</p>}},
  author       = {{Chen, Hans W. and Zhang, Fuqing and Lauvaux, Thomas and Davis, Kenneth J. and Feng, Sha and Butler, Martha P. and Alley, Richard B.}},
  issn         = {{0094-8276}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{04}},
  number       = {{7}},
  pages        = {{4049--4058}},
  publisher    = {{American Geophysical Union (AGU)}},
  series       = {{Geophysical Research Letters}},
  title        = {{Characterization of Regional-Scale CO<sub>2</sub> Transport Uncertainties in an Ensemble with Flow-Dependent Transport Errors}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081341}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2018GL081341}},
  volume       = {{46}},
  year         = {{2019}},
}