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Estimating Grazing Potentials in Sudan Using Daily Carbon Allocation in Dynamic Vegetation Model

Boke-Olén, Niklas LU ; Lehsten, Veiko LU ; Abdi, Abdulhakim M. LU ; Ardö, Jonas LU and Khatir, Abdelrahman A. (2018) In Rangeland Ecology and Management 71(6). p.792-797
Abstract

Livestock production is important for local food security and as a source of income in sub-Saharan Africa. The human population of the region is expected to double by 2050, and at the same time climate change is predicted to negatively affect grazing resources vital to livestock. Therefore, it is essential to model the potential grazing output of sub-Saharan Africa in both present and future climatic conditions. Standard tools to simulate plant productivity are dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). However, as they typically allocate carbon to plant growth at an annual time step, they have a limited capability to simulate grazing. Here, we present a novel implementation of daily carbon allocation for grasses into the DVM Lund-Potsdam-Jena... (More)

Livestock production is important for local food security and as a source of income in sub-Saharan Africa. The human population of the region is expected to double by 2050, and at the same time climate change is predicted to negatively affect grazing resources vital to livestock. Therefore, it is essential to model the potential grazing output of sub-Saharan Africa in both present and future climatic conditions. Standard tools to simulate plant productivity are dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). However, as they typically allocate carbon to plant growth at an annual time step, they have a limited capability to simulate grazing. Here, we present a novel implementation of daily carbon allocation for grasses into the DVM Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) and apply this to study the grazing potential for the Kordofan region in Sudan. The results show a latitudinal split in grazing resources, where the northern parts of Kordofan are unexploited and southern parts are overused. Overall, we found that the modeled grazing potential of Kordofan is 16% higher than the livestock usage reported in the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, indicating a mitigation potential in the form of a spatial relocation of the herds.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
carbon, climate change, grazing, Kordofan, livestock, LPJ-GUESS
in
Rangeland Ecology and Management
volume
71
issue
6
pages
792 - 797
publisher
Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
external identifiers
  • scopus:85050720157
ISSN
1550-7424
DOI
10.1016/j.rama.2018.06.006
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2bf32504-0915-4934-bd65-e67dbb0d94ef
date added to LUP
2018-08-08 15:01:27
date last changed
2019-01-14 17:07:47
@article{2bf32504-0915-4934-bd65-e67dbb0d94ef,
  abstract     = {<p>Livestock production is important for local food security and as a source of income in sub-Saharan Africa. The human population of the region is expected to double by 2050, and at the same time climate change is predicted to negatively affect grazing resources vital to livestock. Therefore, it is essential to model the potential grazing output of sub-Saharan Africa in both present and future climatic conditions. Standard tools to simulate plant productivity are dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). However, as they typically allocate carbon to plant growth at an annual time step, they have a limited capability to simulate grazing. Here, we present a novel implementation of daily carbon allocation for grasses into the DVM Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) and apply this to study the grazing potential for the Kordofan region in Sudan. The results show a latitudinal split in grazing resources, where the northern parts of Kordofan are unexploited and southern parts are overused. Overall, we found that the modeled grazing potential of Kordofan is 16% higher than the livestock usage reported in the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, indicating a mitigation potential in the form of a spatial relocation of the herds.</p>},
  author       = {Boke-Olén, Niklas and Lehsten, Veiko and Abdi, Abdulhakim M. and Ardö, Jonas and Khatir, Abdelrahman A.},
  issn         = {1550-7424},
  keyword      = {carbon,climate change,grazing,Kordofan,livestock,LPJ-GUESS},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {08},
  number       = {6},
  pages        = {792--797},
  publisher    = {Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry},
  series       = {Rangeland Ecology and Management},
  title        = {Estimating Grazing Potentials in Sudan Using Daily Carbon Allocation in Dynamic Vegetation Model},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2018.06.006},
  volume       = {71},
  year         = {2018},
}