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Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems

He, Lei ; Wang, Jian ; Ciais, Philippe ; Ballantyne, Ashley ; Yu, Kailiang ; Zhang, Wenxin LU orcid ; Xiao, Jingfeng ; Ritter, François ; Liu, Zhihua and Wang, Xufeng , et al. (2023) In PNAS Nexus 2(9).
Abstract

The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset,... (More)

The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
PNAS Nexus
volume
2
issue
9
article number
pgad308
publisher
Oxford University Press
external identifiers
  • pmid:37780232
  • scopus:85178304468
ISSN
2752-6542
DOI
10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad308
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2f9e4f6c-ae3d-4137-83d6-eface50080b2
date added to LUP
2024-01-08 09:06:56
date last changed
2024-04-23 04:45:55
@article{2f9e4f6c-ae3d-4137-83d6-eface50080b2,
  abstract     = {{<p>The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.</p>}},
  author       = {{He, Lei and Wang, Jian and Ciais, Philippe and Ballantyne, Ashley and Yu, Kailiang and Zhang, Wenxin and Xiao, Jingfeng and Ritter, François and Liu, Zhihua and Wang, Xufeng and Li, Xiaojun and Peng, Shouzhang and Ma, Changhui and Zhou, Chenghu and Li, Zhao Liang and Xie, Yaowen and Ye, Jian Sheng}},
  issn         = {{2752-6542}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{09}},
  number       = {{9}},
  publisher    = {{Oxford University Press}},
  series       = {{PNAS Nexus}},
  title        = {{Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad308}},
  doi          = {{10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad308}},
  volume       = {{2}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}