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Scenario planning for sustainable tourism: an introduction

Gössling, Stefan LU and Scott, Daniel (2012) In Journal of Sustainable Tourism 20(6). p.773-778
Abstract
This paper introduces the development of scenario planning for sustainable tourism, from the 1970s to the present day. It outlines the links between scenario planning and forecasting, its role as a business-planning tool generally, and its use in tourism for destination planning and advocacy. The prominent role of models is shown and the evolution from the first generation of forecast-focused models of the 1980s to the new generation of complex, integrative, hierarchical, dynamic and even adaptive models of today is discussed. The paper introduces a series of new scenario planning papers that cover a range of subjects including theorising scenario analysis, counterfactual scenario planning, green economy support systems, climate change... (More)
This paper introduces the development of scenario planning for sustainable tourism, from the 1970s to the present day. It outlines the links between scenario planning and forecasting, its role as a business-planning tool generally, and its use in tourism for destination planning and advocacy. The prominent role of models is shown and the evolution from the first generation of forecast-focused models of the 1980s to the new generation of complex, integrative, hierarchical, dynamic and even adaptive models of today is discussed. The paper introduces a series of new scenario planning papers that cover a range of subjects including theorising scenario analysis, counterfactual scenario planning, green economy support systems, climate change scenarios (for ski and coastal tourism), destination environmental footprint scenario tools and transition management as a tool for scenario building. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
scenario planning, modeling, forecast
in
Journal of Sustainable Tourism
volume
20
issue
6
pages
773 - 778
publisher
Routledge
external identifiers
  • wos:000306170000001
  • scopus:84863933064
ISSN
0966-9582
DOI
10.1080/09669582.2012.699064
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
650df716-c8db-4909-b5c5-3de664700886 (old id 3001285)
date added to LUP
2012-08-21 12:57:09
date last changed
2017-01-01 03:46:39
@misc{650df716-c8db-4909-b5c5-3de664700886,
  abstract     = {This paper introduces the development of scenario planning for sustainable tourism, from the 1970s to the present day. It outlines the links between scenario planning and forecasting, its role as a business-planning tool generally, and its use in tourism for destination planning and advocacy. The prominent role of models is shown and the evolution from the first generation of forecast-focused models of the 1980s to the new generation of complex, integrative, hierarchical, dynamic and even adaptive models of today is discussed. The paper introduces a series of new scenario planning papers that cover a range of subjects including theorising scenario analysis, counterfactual scenario planning, green economy support systems, climate change scenarios (for ski and coastal tourism), destination environmental footprint scenario tools and transition management as a tool for scenario building.},
  author       = {Gössling, Stefan and Scott, Daniel},
  issn         = {0966-9582},
  keyword      = {scenario planning,modeling,forecast},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {6},
  pages        = {773--778},
  publisher    = {Routledge},
  series       = {Journal of Sustainable Tourism},
  title        = {Scenario planning for sustainable tourism: an introduction},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2012.699064},
  volume       = {20},
  year         = {2012},
}