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Assessment of models predicting anthropogenic interventions and climate variability on surface runoff of the Lower Zab River

Mohammed, R.; Scholz, M. LU ; Nanekely, M. A. and Mokhtari, Y. (2016) In Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Abstract

Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions... (More)

Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66–97% during 2003–2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4–34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
Climate change, Human-induced impacts, Hydrologic sensitivity analysis, Multi-model combination technique, Multi-regression, Runoff simulation
in
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
pages
18 pages
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85007490497
ISSN
1436-3240
DOI
10.1007/s00477-016-1375-7
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
30d9d234-14b6-413d-ae02-c01b58a5f048
date added to LUP
2017-01-13 07:28:55
date last changed
2017-09-03 05:17:27
@article{30d9d234-14b6-413d-ae02-c01b58a5f048,
  abstract     = {<p>Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66–97% during 2003–2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4–34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied.</p>},
  author       = {Mohammed, R. and Scholz, M. and Nanekely, M. A. and Mokhtari, Y.},
  issn         = {1436-3240},
  keyword      = {Climate change,Human-induced impacts,Hydrologic sensitivity analysis,Multi-model combination technique,Multi-regression,Runoff simulation},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {12},
  pages        = {18},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
  title        = {Assessment of models predicting anthropogenic interventions and climate variability on surface runoff of the Lower Zab River},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1375-7},
  year         = {2016},
}