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Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems

Johansson, Jonas LU ; Hassel, Henrik LU and Zio, Enrico (2013) In Reliability Engineering & System Safety 120. p.27-38
Abstract
Society depends on services provided by critical infrastructures, and hence it is important that they are reliable and robust. Two main approaches for gaining knowledge required for designing and improving critical infrastructures are reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. The former analyses the ability of the system to perform its intended function; the latter analyses its inability to withstand strains and the effects of the consequent failures. The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system. In this view, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss and contrast these approaches. To strengthen the discussion and exemplify its findings, a... (More)
Society depends on services provided by critical infrastructures, and hence it is important that they are reliable and robust. Two main approaches for gaining knowledge required for designing and improving critical infrastructures are reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. The former analyses the ability of the system to perform its intended function; the latter analyses its inability to withstand strains and the effects of the consequent failures. The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system. In this view, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss and contrast these approaches. To strengthen the discussion and exemplify its findings, a Monte Carlo-based reliability analysis and a vulnerability analysis are considered in their application to a relatively simple, but representative, system of literature, the IEEE RTS96 electric power test system. The exemplification reveals that reliability analysis provides a good picture of the system likely behaviour, but fails to capture a large portion of the high consequence scenarios, which are instead captured in the vulnerability analysis. Although these scenarios might be estimated to have small probabilities of occurrence, they should be identified, considered and treated cautiously, as probabilistic analyses should not be the only input to decision-making for the design and protection of critical infrastructures. The general conclusion that can be drawn from the findings of the example is that vulnerability analysis should be used to complement reliability studies, as well as other forms of probabilistic risk analysis. Measures should be sought for reducing both the vulnerability, i.e.improving the system ability to withstand strains and stresses, and the reliability, i.e. improving the likely behaviour. (Less)
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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Reliability Analysis, Vulnerability Analysis, Risk Management, Critical Infrastructures, Power Systems
in
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
volume
120
pages
27 - 38
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000324974000005
  • scopus:84885644509
ISSN
0951-8320
DOI
10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.027
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3169646d-041c-46f6-884e-9439af230eb9 (old id 3916512)
alternative location
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832013000719
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 13:00:18
date last changed
2020-12-29 03:24:04
@article{3169646d-041c-46f6-884e-9439af230eb9,
  abstract     = {Society depends on services provided by critical infrastructures, and hence it is important that they are reliable and robust. Two main approaches for gaining knowledge required for designing and improving critical infrastructures are reliability analysis and vulnerability analysis. The former analyses the ability of the system to perform its intended function; the latter analyses its inability to withstand strains and the effects of the consequent failures. The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system. In this view, the main purpose of this paper is to discuss and contrast these approaches. To strengthen the discussion and exemplify its findings, a Monte Carlo-based reliability analysis and a vulnerability analysis are considered in their application to a relatively simple, but representative, system of literature, the IEEE RTS96 electric power test system. The exemplification reveals that reliability analysis provides a good picture of the system likely behaviour, but fails to capture a large portion of the high consequence scenarios, which are instead captured in the vulnerability analysis. Although these scenarios might be estimated to have small probabilities of occurrence, they should be identified, considered and treated cautiously, as probabilistic analyses should not be the only input to decision-making for the design and protection of critical infrastructures. The general conclusion that can be drawn from the findings of the example is that vulnerability analysis should be used to complement reliability studies, as well as other forms of probabilistic risk analysis. Measures should be sought for reducing both the vulnerability, i.e.improving the system ability to withstand strains and stresses, and the reliability, i.e. improving the likely behaviour.},
  author       = {Johansson, Jonas and Hassel, Henrik and Zio, Enrico},
  issn         = {0951-8320},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {27--38},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Reliability Engineering & System Safety},
  title        = {Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.027},
  doi          = {10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.027},
  volume       = {120},
  year         = {2013},
}