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Guess the impact of Ips typographus – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks

Jönsson, Anna Maria LU ; Schroeder, L.M.; Lagergren, Fredrik LU ; Anderbrant, Olle LU and Smith, Benjamin LU (2012) In Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 166-167. p.188-200
Abstract
Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the Ips typographus population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this study, we take an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the influence of multiple environmental factors on the risk for I. typographus outbreaks. Model calculations of I. typographus phenology and population dynamics as a function of weather and brood tree availability were developed and implemented in the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem modelling framework. The model simulations were driven by gridded climate data covering Sweden with a... (More)
Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the Ips typographus population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this study, we take an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the influence of multiple environmental factors on the risk for I. typographus outbreaks. Model calculations of I. typographus phenology and population dynamics as a function of weather and brood tree availability were developed and implemented in the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem modelling framework. The model simulations were driven by gridded climate data covering Sweden with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a daily temporal resolution. Records on storm damage and I. typographus outbreak periods in Sweden for the period of 1960–2009 were used for model evaluation, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the model behaviour. The model simulations replicated the observed pattern in outbreak frequency, being more common in southern and central Sweden than in northern Sweden. A warmer climate allowing for more than one generation per year can increase the risk for attacks on living trees. The effect of countermeasures, aiming at either reduce the availability of brood material or the I. typographus population size, is dependent on a non-linear relation between I. typographus attack density and reproductive success. The sensitivity analysis indicated a major reduction in the risk of attacks on living trees by timely salvage cutting and cutting of infested trees. Knowledge uncertainties associated with attacks on standing trees, i.e. factors influencing tree defence capacity and I. typographus reproductive success, should be further addressed. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Forest management, Climate change, LPJ-GUESS, Risk analysis
in
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
volume
166-167
pages
188 - 200
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000313479100020
  • scopus:84866173323
ISSN
1873-2240
DOI
10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012
project
BECC
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
39e5c43a-b549-4a06-a580-fa3895efbbc6 (old id 3202921)
date added to LUP
2012-11-28 13:23:12
date last changed
2017-10-22 04:09:01
@article{39e5c43a-b549-4a06-a580-fa3895efbbc6,
  abstract     = {Spruce bark beetle outbreaks are common in Norway spruce forests following windstorm damage, due to ample availability of brood material. The realization of an outbreak depends on factors regulating the <i>Ips typographus</i> population dynamics, such as weather conditions and salvage cutting. In this study, we take an ecosystem modelling approach to analyse the influence of multiple environmental factors on the risk for<i> I. typographus</i> outbreaks. Model calculations of <i>I. typographus</i> phenology and population dynamics as a function of weather and brood tree availability were developed and implemented in the LPJ-GUESS ecosystem modelling framework. The model simulations were driven by gridded climate data covering Sweden with a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a daily temporal resolution. Records on storm damage and <i>I. typographus</i> outbreak periods in Sweden for the period of 1960–2009 were used for model evaluation, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the model behaviour. The model simulations replicated the observed pattern in outbreak frequency, being more common in southern and central Sweden than in northern Sweden. A warmer climate allowing for more than one generation per year can increase the risk for attacks on living trees. The effect of countermeasures, aiming at either reduce the availability of brood material or the<i> I. typographus</i> population size, is dependent on a non-linear relation between <i>I. typographus</i> attack density and reproductive success. The sensitivity analysis indicated a major reduction in the risk of attacks on living trees by timely salvage cutting and cutting of infested trees. Knowledge uncertainties associated with attacks on standing trees, i.e. factors influencing tree defence capacity and <i>I. typographus</i> reproductive success, should be further addressed.},
  author       = {Jönsson, Anna Maria and Schroeder, L.M. and Lagergren, Fredrik and Anderbrant, Olle and Smith, Benjamin},
  issn         = {1873-2240},
  keyword      = {Forest management,Climate change,LPJ-GUESS,Risk analysis},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {188--200},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  title        = {Guess the impact of <i>Ips typographus</i> – An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating bark beetle outbreaks},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012},
  volume       = {166-167},
  year         = {2012},
}