Advanced

Absolute Risk Prediction of Second Primary Thyroid Cancer Among 5-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer.

Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Ronckers, Cécile M; Veiga, Lene H S; Sigurdson, Alice J; Inskip, Peter D; de Vathaire, Florent; Sklar, Charles A; Donaldson, Sarah S; Anderson, Harald LU and Bhatti, Parveen, et al. (2012) In Journal of Clinical Oncology
Abstract
PURPOSEWe developed three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer to assist with long-term clinical monitoring of childhood cancer survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODSWe used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and two nested case-control studies (Nordic CCSS; Late Effects Study Group). Model M1 included self-reported risk factors, model M2 added basic radiation and chemotherapy treatment information abstracted from medical records, and model M3 refined M2 by incorporating reconstructed radiation absorbed dose to the thyroid. All models were validated in an independent cohort of French childhood cancer survivors.ResultsM1 included birth year, initial cancer type, age at diagnosis, sex, and past thyroid nodule... (More)
PURPOSEWe developed three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer to assist with long-term clinical monitoring of childhood cancer survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODSWe used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and two nested case-control studies (Nordic CCSS; Late Effects Study Group). Model M1 included self-reported risk factors, model M2 added basic radiation and chemotherapy treatment information abstracted from medical records, and model M3 refined M2 by incorporating reconstructed radiation absorbed dose to the thyroid. All models were validated in an independent cohort of French childhood cancer survivors.ResultsM1 included birth year, initial cancer type, age at diagnosis, sex, and past thyroid nodule diagnosis. M2 added radiation (yes/no), radiation to the neck (yes/no), and alkylating agent (yes/no). Past thyroid nodule was consistently the strongest risk factor (M1 relative risk [RR ], 10.8; M2 RR, 6.8; M3 RR, 8.2). In the validation cohort, 20-year absolute risk predictions for second primary thyroid cancer ranged from 0.04% to 7.4% for M2. Expected events agreed well with observed events for each model, indicating good calibration. All models had good discriminatory ability (M1 area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC ], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.77; M2 AUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.86; M3 AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.82). CONCLUSIONWe developed and validated three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer. Model M2, with basic prior treatment information, could be useful for monitoring thyroid cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
, et al. (More)
(Less)
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Clinical Oncology
publisher
American Society of Clinical Oncology
external identifiers
  • wos:000312911900025
  • pmid:23169509
  • scopus:84871769704
ISSN
1527-7755
DOI
10.1200/JCO.2012.41.8996
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
65db3efa-807a-4b5f-85ca-19d39051b1e0 (old id 3218641)
alternative location
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23169509?dopt=Abstract
date added to LUP
2012-12-03 20:15:12
date last changed
2017-07-02 04:33:20
@article{65db3efa-807a-4b5f-85ca-19d39051b1e0,
  abstract     = {PURPOSEWe developed three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer to assist with long-term clinical monitoring of childhood cancer survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODSWe used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and two nested case-control studies (Nordic CCSS; Late Effects Study Group). Model M1 included self-reported risk factors, model M2 added basic radiation and chemotherapy treatment information abstracted from medical records, and model M3 refined M2 by incorporating reconstructed radiation absorbed dose to the thyroid. All models were validated in an independent cohort of French childhood cancer survivors.ResultsM1 included birth year, initial cancer type, age at diagnosis, sex, and past thyroid nodule diagnosis. M2 added radiation (yes/no), radiation to the neck (yes/no), and alkylating agent (yes/no). Past thyroid nodule was consistently the strongest risk factor (M1 relative risk [RR ], 10.8; M2 RR, 6.8; M3 RR, 8.2). In the validation cohort, 20-year absolute risk predictions for second primary thyroid cancer ranged from 0.04% to 7.4% for M2. Expected events agreed well with observed events for each model, indicating good calibration. All models had good discriminatory ability (M1 area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC ], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.77; M2 AUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.86; M3 AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.82). CONCLUSIONWe developed and validated three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer. Model M2, with basic prior treatment information, could be useful for monitoring thyroid cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors.},
  author       = {Kovalchik, Stephanie A and Ronckers, Cécile M and Veiga, Lene H S and Sigurdson, Alice J and Inskip, Peter D and de Vathaire, Florent and Sklar, Charles A and Donaldson, Sarah S and Anderson, Harald and Bhatti, Parveen and Hammond, Sue and Leisenring, Wendy M and Mertens, Ann C and Smith, Susan A and Stovall, Marilyn and Tucker, Margaret A and Weathers, Rita E and Robison, Leslie L and Pfeiffer, Ruth M},
  issn         = {1527-7755},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {11},
  publisher    = {American Society of Clinical Oncology},
  series       = {Journal of Clinical Oncology},
  title        = {Absolute Risk Prediction of Second Primary Thyroid Cancer Among 5-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/JCO.2012.41.8996},
  year         = {2012},
}