Severe Neck and Low Back Pain Predicts Severe Pain 5 Years Later in Older Men : A Cohort Study
(2025) In Journal of Pain Research 18. p.6563-6577- Abstract
Purpose: To describe the prevalence of neck pain (NP) and low back pain (LBP) of varying severity in older community-dwelling men, identify associated factors, and evaluate whether prevalent NP/LBP are risk factors for experiencing pain 5 years later. Patients and Methods: MrOS Sweden is a prospective observational study that included 3014 community-dwelling men aged 69–81 years, of whom 1962 attended a 5-year follow-up. NP/LBP were assessed based on 1-year prevalence (yes/no), pain severity (none, mild, moderate, severe), and the presence of radicular pain with or without motor deficits (yes/no), at both baseline and follow-up. Results: At baseline, the 1-year prevalence for having either NP, LBP, or both was 55%. The 1-year prevalence... (More)
Purpose: To describe the prevalence of neck pain (NP) and low back pain (LBP) of varying severity in older community-dwelling men, identify associated factors, and evaluate whether prevalent NP/LBP are risk factors for experiencing pain 5 years later. Patients and Methods: MrOS Sweden is a prospective observational study that included 3014 community-dwelling men aged 69–81 years, of whom 1962 attended a 5-year follow-up. NP/LBP were assessed based on 1-year prevalence (yes/no), pain severity (none, mild, moderate, severe), and the presence of radicular pain with or without motor deficits (yes/no), at both baseline and follow-up. Results: At baseline, the 1-year prevalence for having either NP, LBP, or both was 55%. The 1-year prevalence for NP was 29% and for LBP 45%. Among men with NP, 18% reported severe pain, while 17% of men with LBP reported severe pain. Men with NP at baseline had a relative risk (RR) of 4.0 (95% CI: 3.4–4.6) for reporting NP 5 years later, compared to men without NP at baseline. Men with severe NP had an RR of 10.7 (95% CI: 7.5–15.1) for reporting severe NP 5 years later, compared to men without severe NP at baseline. The corresponding RRs for LBP were 2.8 (95% CI: 2.5–3.1) and 6.5 (95% CI: 4.9–8.6). Poor self-rated health and dizziness were associated with NP/LBP at both time points, while smoking was associated with lower risk of NP. Conclusion: More than half of community-dwelling men aged 69–81 experience pain in the spinal region during a year (nearly one-third NP and just below half LBP). The majority experience only mild to moderate pain. Baseline pain, especially severe pain, strongly predicts pain 5 years later, and associated factors may help identify high-risk groups suitable for targeted interventions.
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- author
- Damm, Henrik LU ; Rosengren, Björn E. LU ; Jehpsson, Lars LU ; Ohlsson, Claes ; Ribom, Eva L. ; Mellström, Dan and Karlsson, Magnus K. LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2025
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- ageing, epidemiology, motoric symptoms, musculoskeletal pain, population-based, radiculopathy
- in
- Journal of Pain Research
- volume
- 18
- pages
- 15 pages
- publisher
- Dove Medical Press Ltd.
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105024096961
- pmid:41395183
- ISSN
- 1178-7090
- DOI
- 10.2147/JPR.S547079
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2025 Damm et al.
- id
- 332c20cd-21c0-42d1-8d98-92eca0223a83
- date added to LUP
- 2026-03-03 12:48:00
- date last changed
- 2026-05-27 01:22:16
@article{332c20cd-21c0-42d1-8d98-92eca0223a83,
abstract = {{<p>Purpose: To describe the prevalence of neck pain (NP) and low back pain (LBP) of varying severity in older community-dwelling men, identify associated factors, and evaluate whether prevalent NP/LBP are risk factors for experiencing pain 5 years later. Patients and Methods: MrOS Sweden is a prospective observational study that included 3014 community-dwelling men aged 69–81 years, of whom 1962 attended a 5-year follow-up. NP/LBP were assessed based on 1-year prevalence (yes/no), pain severity (none, mild, moderate, severe), and the presence of radicular pain with or without motor deficits (yes/no), at both baseline and follow-up. Results: At baseline, the 1-year prevalence for having either NP, LBP, or both was 55%. The 1-year prevalence for NP was 29% and for LBP 45%. Among men with NP, 18% reported severe pain, while 17% of men with LBP reported severe pain. Men with NP at baseline had a relative risk (RR) of 4.0 (95% CI: 3.4–4.6) for reporting NP 5 years later, compared to men without NP at baseline. Men with severe NP had an RR of 10.7 (95% CI: 7.5–15.1) for reporting severe NP 5 years later, compared to men without severe NP at baseline. The corresponding RRs for LBP were 2.8 (95% CI: 2.5–3.1) and 6.5 (95% CI: 4.9–8.6). Poor self-rated health and dizziness were associated with NP/LBP at both time points, while smoking was associated with lower risk of NP. Conclusion: More than half of community-dwelling men aged 69–81 experience pain in the spinal region during a year (nearly one-third NP and just below half LBP). The majority experience only mild to moderate pain. Baseline pain, especially severe pain, strongly predicts pain 5 years later, and associated factors may help identify high-risk groups suitable for targeted interventions.</p>}},
author = {{Damm, Henrik and Rosengren, Björn E. and Jehpsson, Lars and Ohlsson, Claes and Ribom, Eva L. and Mellström, Dan and Karlsson, Magnus K.}},
issn = {{1178-7090}},
keywords = {{ageing; epidemiology; motoric symptoms; musculoskeletal pain; population-based; radiculopathy}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{6563--6577}},
publisher = {{Dove Medical Press Ltd.}},
series = {{Journal of Pain Research}},
title = {{Severe Neck and Low Back Pain Predicts Severe Pain 5 Years Later in Older Men : A Cohort Study}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/JPR.S547079}},
doi = {{10.2147/JPR.S547079}},
volume = {{18}},
year = {{2025}},
}