Poll of polls: A compositional loess model
(2014) In Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 41(2). p.301-310- Abstract
- A large number of polls on party preferences are published today. In order to get an estimate of the changes in political opinion, the polls may be combined into a poll of polls. We discuss a method for combining polls using the fact that they are compositions and respecting the properties of the compositional sample space (the simplex). The method is easily implemented and the estimate may be computed in linear time. We provide an example with Swedish data from year 2007 to 2010. The method also allows us to present the deviations between the estimated compositions and the observed. In the
data set, we note e.g. differences between different polling institutes.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/3437710
- author
- Bergman, Jakob LU and Holmquist, Björn LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2014
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- party preferences, compositional weighted least sum of squares, simplex, smoothing
- in
- Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
- volume
- 41
- issue
- 2
- pages
- 301 - 310
- publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000335388400003
- scopus:84899981634
- ISSN
- 1467-9469
- DOI
- 10.1111/sjos.12023
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- b43d7a29-b372-43c3-bfa7-3e72bc68b477 (old id 3437710)
- alternative location
- http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjos.12023/abstract
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 11:01:02
- date last changed
- 2022-03-27 21:43:58
@article{b43d7a29-b372-43c3-bfa7-3e72bc68b477, abstract = {{A large number of polls on party preferences are published today. In order to get an estimate of the changes in political opinion, the polls may be combined into a poll of polls. We discuss a method for combining polls using the fact that they are compositions and respecting the properties of the compositional sample space (the simplex). The method is easily implemented and the estimate may be computed in linear time. We provide an example with Swedish data from year 2007 to 2010. The method also allows us to present the deviations between the estimated compositions and the observed. In the<br/><br> data set, we note e.g. differences between different polling institutes.}}, author = {{Bergman, Jakob and Holmquist, Björn}}, issn = {{1467-9469}}, keywords = {{party preferences; compositional weighted least sum of squares; simplex; smoothing}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{2}}, pages = {{301--310}}, publisher = {{Wiley-Blackwell}}, series = {{Scandinavian Journal of Statistics}}, title = {{Poll of polls: A compositional loess model}}, url = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/51894216/Bergman_Holmquist_SJS_final.pdf}}, doi = {{10.1111/sjos.12023}}, volume = {{41}}, year = {{2014}}, }