Winners and Losers : The Asymmetric Impact of Tariff Protection on Late-Nineteenth-Century Swedish Manufacturing Firms
(2025) In Journal of Economic History 85(4). p.1138-1169- Abstract
Cross-country regressions suggest that protectionism supported industrialization. I leverage novel and highly granular data covering Swedish manufacturing firms to estimate the impact of Sweden’s shift toward protectionism after 1891 on establishment-level development. Using mainly two-way fixed effects regressions, I show that tariff increases had a heterogeneous impact across establishments: initially low-productivity establishments increased their productivity, while initially high-productivity establishments experienced a relative decline. I suggest that tariffs differentially shaped the incentives of managers in low- and high-productivity establishments to innovate and (re)organize production. Consistent with modern trade theory,... (More)
Cross-country regressions suggest that protectionism supported industrialization. I leverage novel and highly granular data covering Swedish manufacturing firms to estimate the impact of Sweden’s shift toward protectionism after 1891 on establishment-level development. Using mainly two-way fixed effects regressions, I show that tariff increases had a heterogeneous impact across establishments: initially low-productivity establishments increased their productivity, while initially high-productivity establishments experienced a relative decline. I suggest that tariffs differentially shaped the incentives of managers in low- and high-productivity establishments to innovate and (re)organize production. Consistent with modern trade theory, heterogeneous establishment-level dynamics underlie a potential tariff-growth paradox.
(Less)
- author
- Ostermeyer, Vinzent LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2025-12
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Journal of Economic History
- volume
- 85
- issue
- 4
- pages
- 32 pages
- publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105023894326
- ISSN
- 0022-0507
- DOI
- 10.1017/S0022050725100806
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 34eb8cd3-eec3-4965-a6e9-c12281fb9c0f
- date added to LUP
- 2026-01-12 13:44:42
- date last changed
- 2026-01-12 13:45:15
@article{34eb8cd3-eec3-4965-a6e9-c12281fb9c0f,
abstract = {{<p>Cross-country regressions suggest that protectionism supported industrialization. I leverage novel and highly granular data covering Swedish manufacturing firms to estimate the impact of Sweden’s shift toward protectionism after 1891 on establishment-level development. Using mainly two-way fixed effects regressions, I show that tariff increases had a heterogeneous impact across establishments: initially low-productivity establishments increased their productivity, while initially high-productivity establishments experienced a relative decline. I suggest that tariffs differentially shaped the incentives of managers in low- and high-productivity establishments to innovate and (re)organize production. Consistent with modern trade theory, heterogeneous establishment-level dynamics underlie a potential tariff-growth paradox.</p>}},
author = {{Ostermeyer, Vinzent}},
issn = {{0022-0507}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{4}},
pages = {{1138--1169}},
publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}},
series = {{Journal of Economic History}},
title = {{Winners and Losers : The Asymmetric Impact of Tariff Protection on Late-Nineteenth-Century Swedish Manufacturing Firms}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022050725100806}},
doi = {{10.1017/S0022050725100806}},
volume = {{85}},
year = {{2025}},
}