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Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020

Spreco, Armin ; Jöud, Anna LU orcid ; Eriksson, Olle ; Soltesz, Kristian LU orcid ; Källström, Reidar ; Dahlström, Örjan ; Eriksson, Henrik ; Ekberg, Joakim ; Jonson, Carl Oscar and Fraenkel, Carl Johan LU , et al. (2022) In Emerging Infectious Diseases 28(3). p.564-571
Abstract

We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance... (More)

We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Emerging Infectious Diseases
volume
28
issue
3
pages
564 - 571
publisher
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
external identifiers
  • scopus:85125180034
  • pmid:35201737
ISSN
1080-6040
DOI
10.3201/eid2803.210267
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
382602d1-a143-4e2e-9488-1162cd40f665
date added to LUP
2022-04-29 14:41:53
date last changed
2024-06-20 07:52:57
@article{382602d1-a143-4e2e-9488-1162cd40f665,
  abstract     = {{<p>We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r&gt;0.80; mean absolute percentage error &lt;20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to &lt;1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.</p>}},
  author       = {{Spreco, Armin and Jöud, Anna and Eriksson, Olle and Soltesz, Kristian and Källström, Reidar and Dahlström, Örjan and Eriksson, Henrik and Ekberg, Joakim and Jonson, Carl Oscar and Fraenkel, Carl Johan and Lundh, Torbjörn and Gerlee, Philip and Gustafsson, Fredrik and Timpka, Toomas}},
  issn         = {{1080-6040}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{3}},
  pages        = {{564--571}},
  publisher    = {{Centers for Disease Control and Prevention}},
  series       = {{Emerging Infectious Diseases}},
  title        = {{Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2803.210267}},
  doi          = {{10.3201/eid2803.210267}},
  volume       = {{28}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}