Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020
(2022) In Emerging Infectious Diseases 28(3). p.564-571- Abstract
We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance... (More)
We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.
(Less)
- author
- organization
- publishing date
- 2022-03
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Emerging Infectious Diseases
- volume
- 28
- issue
- 3
- pages
- 564 - 571
- publisher
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85125180034
- pmid:35201737
- ISSN
- 1080-6040
- DOI
- 10.3201/eid2803.210267
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 382602d1-a143-4e2e-9488-1162cd40f665
- date added to LUP
- 2022-04-29 14:41:53
- date last changed
- 2024-09-11 13:35:13
@article{382602d1-a143-4e2e-9488-1162cd40f665, abstract = {{<p>We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.</p>}}, author = {{Spreco, Armin and Jöud, Anna and Eriksson, Olle and Soltesz, Kristian and Källström, Reidar and Dahlström, Örjan and Eriksson, Henrik and Ekberg, Joakim and Jonson, Carl Oscar and Fraenkel, Carl Johan and Lundh, Torbjörn and Gerlee, Philip and Gustafsson, Fredrik and Timpka, Toomas}}, issn = {{1080-6040}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{3}}, pages = {{564--571}}, publisher = {{Centers for Disease Control and Prevention}}, series = {{Emerging Infectious Diseases}}, title = {{Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2803.210267}}, doi = {{10.3201/eid2803.210267}}, volume = {{28}}, year = {{2022}}, }