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District heating potential in the EU-27 : Evaluating the impacts of heat demand reduction and market share growth

Fallahnejad, Mostafa ; Kranzl, Lukas ; Haas, Reinhard ; Hummel, Marcus ; Müller, Andreas ; Sánchez-García, Luis LU and Persson, Urban LU (2024) In Applied Energy 353.
Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the gradual reduction in heat demand and the evolving expansion of district heating (DH) grids for assessing the DH potential in EU member states (MS). It introduces new methodological elements for modeling the impact of connection rates below 100% on heat distribution costs in both dense and sparse areas. The projected heat demand in 2050 is derived from a decarbonization scenario published by the EU, which would lead to a reduction in demand from 3128 TWh in 2020 to 1709 TWh by 2050. The proposed approach yields information on economic DH areas, DH potential, and average heat distribution costs. The results confirm the need to expand DH grids to maintain supply levels in view of... (More)

This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the gradual reduction in heat demand and the evolving expansion of district heating (DH) grids for assessing the DH potential in EU member states (MS). It introduces new methodological elements for modeling the impact of connection rates below 100% on heat distribution costs in both dense and sparse areas. The projected heat demand in 2050 is derived from a decarbonization scenario published by the EU, which would lead to a reduction in demand from 3128 TWh in 2020 to 1709 TWh by 2050. The proposed approach yields information on economic DH areas, DH potential, and average heat distribution costs. The results confirm the need to expand DH grids to maintain supply levels in view of decreasing heat demand. The proportion of DH potential from the total demand in the EU-27 rises from 15% in 2020 to 31% in 2050. The analysis of DH areas shows that 39% of the DH potential is in areas with heat distribution costs above 35 EUR/MWh, but most MS have average heat distribution costs between 28 and 32 EUR/MWh. The study reveals that over 40% of the EU's heat demand is in regions with high potential for implementing DH.

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author
; ; ; ; ; and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
District heating grid investment, District heating potential, EU-27, GIS
in
Applied Energy
volume
353
article number
122154
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85175477205
ISSN
0306-2619
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122154
language
English
LU publication?
no
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s)
id
3ca35da9-b92d-4a8f-9728-d06ff30f9f79
date added to LUP
2024-11-11 11:09:01
date last changed
2025-04-04 14:20:26
@article{3ca35da9-b92d-4a8f-9728-d06ff30f9f79,
  abstract     = {{<p>This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the gradual reduction in heat demand and the evolving expansion of district heating (DH) grids for assessing the DH potential in EU member states (MS). It introduces new methodological elements for modeling the impact of connection rates below 100% on heat distribution costs in both dense and sparse areas. The projected heat demand in 2050 is derived from a decarbonization scenario published by the EU, which would lead to a reduction in demand from 3128 TWh in 2020 to 1709 TWh by 2050. The proposed approach yields information on economic DH areas, DH potential, and average heat distribution costs. The results confirm the need to expand DH grids to maintain supply levels in view of decreasing heat demand. The proportion of DH potential from the total demand in the EU-27 rises from 15% in 2020 to 31% in 2050. The analysis of DH areas shows that 39% of the DH potential is in areas with heat distribution costs above 35 EUR/MWh, but most MS have average heat distribution costs between 28 and 32 EUR/MWh. The study reveals that over 40% of the EU's heat demand is in regions with high potential for implementing DH.</p>}},
  author       = {{Fallahnejad, Mostafa and Kranzl, Lukas and Haas, Reinhard and Hummel, Marcus and Müller, Andreas and Sánchez-García, Luis and Persson, Urban}},
  issn         = {{0306-2619}},
  keywords     = {{District heating grid investment; District heating potential; EU-27; GIS}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Applied Energy}},
  title        = {{District heating potential in the EU-27 : Evaluating the impacts of heat demand reduction and market share growth}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122154}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122154}},
  volume       = {{353}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}