Modelling district heating and cooling : analysis of network costs and configurations for a decarbonised heat and cold supply
(2025)- Abstract
- District heating and cooling is a simple but powerful technology that could contribute to decarbonising Europe's heating and cooling supply. However, its current overall penetration is minor. Furthermore, future systems could adopt different configurations with various settings of temperature levels or production location. This thesis has aimed to improve existing tools to evaluate district heating potential, apply them on a continental scale and assess the economic benefits and costs of two main types of district heating configurations.
Concerning the first topic, district heating feasibility is highly dependent on network investment costs and, therefore, their estimation is critical. One of the tools developed for this task is... (More) - District heating and cooling is a simple but powerful technology that could contribute to decarbonising Europe's heating and cooling supply. However, its current overall penetration is minor. Furthermore, future systems could adopt different configurations with various settings of temperature levels or production location. This thesis has aimed to improve existing tools to evaluate district heating potential, apply them on a continental scale and assess the economic benefits and costs of two main types of district heating configurations.
Concerning the first topic, district heating feasibility is highly dependent on network investment costs and, therefore, their estimation is critical. One of the tools developed for this task is Persson & Werner's model, a data-lean and fast method which provides a first-order approximation. Work on this thesis first focused on improving one of the model parameters, the effective width, which indicates the necessary trench length. An extensive geographic analysis enabled the determination of new equations that relate effective width to several indicators of building density under a wide range of conditions. Furthermore, the model with the improved parameter formulations was tested, and the results show that the model reaches relatively accurate predictions in large areas but fails to deliver in small areas. Second, attention shifted to its application on a continental scale. The enhanced model was further refined to take connection rates and future heat demands into account and was later employed to estimate district heating potential in Europe. Results show that district heating could deliver a third of the heat demand by 2050.
Regarding configurations, a broad classification can be drawn between warm and cold networks. Whereas the former are able to deliver heat at the required temperatures to the consumers from a central production plant, the latter require additional decentralised temperature boosting. Both configurations present advantages and disadvantages, but few studies had attempted to quantify their economic costs. Therefore, this thesis aimed to elaborate on an economic comparison by means of a case study of the city of Bilbao, Spain. Results show that warm networks can deliver heat at a lower cost than cold networks thanks to the benefits of centralisation, such as diversity, a combination of sources, inexpensive thermal storage or lower electricity costs, and despite a more costly pipe network. Moreover, these results are robust to a series of conditions. Nonetheless, for the combined delivery of heating and cooling, both systems lead to similar costs, since the warm network requires the construction of an additional district cooling network, whilst minimal additional outlays are necessary for the cold network. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/72bf7db6-8e53-4e63-b918-25cd6b1daca0
- author
- Sánchez García, Luis LU
- supervisor
- opponent
-
- Assoc. Prof. Guelpa, Elisa, Politechnico di Torino, Italy.
- organization
- publishing date
- 2025-08-05
- type
- Thesis
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- District Heating, District cooling, Network costs, Network configurations,, GIS
- edition
- 1
- pages
- 354 pages
- publisher
- Department of Energy Sciences, Lund University
- defense location
- Lecture Hall M:B, building M, Ole Römers väg 1F, Faculty of Engineering LTH, Lund University, Lund.
- defense date
- 2025-09-11 10:15:00
- ISSN
- 0282-1990
- ISBN
- 978-91-8104-611-3
- 978-91-8104-610-6
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 72bf7db6-8e53-4e63-b918-25cd6b1daca0
- date added to LUP
- 2025-08-05 16:18:06
- date last changed
- 2025-08-18 13:11:23
@phdthesis{72bf7db6-8e53-4e63-b918-25cd6b1daca0,
abstract = {{District heating and cooling is a simple but powerful technology that could contribute to decarbonising Europe's heating and cooling supply. However, its current overall penetration is minor. Furthermore, future systems could adopt different configurations with various settings of temperature levels or production location. This thesis has aimed to improve existing tools to evaluate district heating potential, apply them on a continental scale and assess the economic benefits and costs of two main types of district heating configurations. <br/><br/>Concerning the first topic, district heating feasibility is highly dependent on network investment costs and, therefore, their estimation is critical. One of the tools developed for this task is Persson & Werner's model, a data-lean and fast method which provides a first-order approximation. Work on this thesis first focused on improving one of the model parameters, the effective width, which indicates the necessary trench length. An extensive geographic analysis enabled the determination of new equations that relate effective width to several indicators of building density under a wide range of conditions. Furthermore, the model with the improved parameter formulations was tested, and the results show that the model reaches relatively accurate predictions in large areas but fails to deliver in small areas. Second, attention shifted to its application on a continental scale. The enhanced model was further refined to take connection rates and future heat demands into account and was later employed to estimate district heating potential in Europe. Results show that district heating could deliver a third of the heat demand by 2050. <br/><br/>Regarding configurations, a broad classification can be drawn between warm and cold networks. Whereas the former are able to deliver heat at the required temperatures to the consumers from a central production plant, the latter require additional decentralised temperature boosting. Both configurations present advantages and disadvantages, but few studies had attempted to quantify their economic costs. Therefore, this thesis aimed to elaborate on an economic comparison by means of a case study of the city of Bilbao, Spain. Results show that warm networks can deliver heat at a lower cost than cold networks thanks to the benefits of centralisation, such as diversity, a combination of sources, inexpensive thermal storage or lower electricity costs, and despite a more costly pipe network. Moreover, these results are robust to a series of conditions. Nonetheless, for the combined delivery of heating and cooling, both systems lead to similar costs, since the warm network requires the construction of an additional district cooling network, whilst minimal additional outlays are necessary for the cold network.}},
author = {{Sánchez García, Luis}},
isbn = {{978-91-8104-611-3}},
issn = {{0282-1990}},
keywords = {{District Heating; District cooling; Network costs; Network configurations,; GIS}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{08}},
publisher = {{Department of Energy Sciences, Lund University}},
school = {{Lund University}},
title = {{Modelling district heating and cooling : analysis of network costs and configurations for a decarbonised heat and cold supply}},
url = {{https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/files/224805067/PhD_Thesis_Luis_S_nchez_Garc_a_2025-08-05.pdf}},
year = {{2025}},
}