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Extreme precipitation patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and its correlation with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

An, Dong LU ; Eggeling, Jakob LU ; Zhang, Linus LU orcid ; He, Hao ; Sapkota, Amir ; Wang, Yu-Chun and Gao, Chuansi LU (2023) In Scientific Reports 13.
Abstract

In the Asia-Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study... (More)

In the Asia-Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study locations over eight countries and regions during 1990-2019. Results revealed a general decrease indicated by the extreme precipitation indices (e.g., the annual total amount of wet-day precipitation, average intensity of wet-day precipitation), particularly in central-eastern China, Bangladesh, eastern India, Peninsular Malaysia and Indonesia. We observed that the seasonal variability of the amount of wet-day precipitation in most locations in China and India are dominated by precipitation intensity in June-August (JJA), and by precipitation frequency in December-February (DJF). Locations in Malaysia and Indonesia are mostly dominated by precipitation intensity in March-May (MAM) and DJF. During ENSO positive phase, significant negative anomalies in seasonal precipitation indices (amount of wet-day precipitation, number of wet days and intensity of wet-day precipitation) were observed in Indonesia, while opposite results were observed for ENSO negative phase. These findings revealing patterns and drivers for extreme precipitation in APR may inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in the study region.

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author
; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Extreme Weather, Precipitation intensity, Disasters, Precipitation frequency, spatiotemporal trends
in
Scientific Reports
volume
13
article number
11068
pages
12 pages
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:85164104736
  • pmid:37422491
ISSN
2045-2322
DOI
10.1038/s41598-023-38317-0
project
Addressing Extreme Weather Related Diarrheal Disease Risks in the Asia-Pacific Region
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3dd4c528-9b23-4bef-bdac-b85b771d8d68
date added to LUP
2023-07-15 21:17:48
date last changed
2024-04-19 23:33:44
@article{3dd4c528-9b23-4bef-bdac-b85b771d8d68,
  abstract     = {{<p>In the Asia-Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study locations over eight countries and regions during 1990-2019. Results revealed a general decrease indicated by the extreme precipitation indices (e.g., the annual total amount of wet-day precipitation, average intensity of wet-day precipitation), particularly in central-eastern China, Bangladesh, eastern India, Peninsular Malaysia and Indonesia. We observed that the seasonal variability of the amount of wet-day precipitation in most locations in China and India are dominated by precipitation intensity in June-August (JJA), and by precipitation frequency in December-February (DJF). Locations in Malaysia and Indonesia are mostly dominated by precipitation intensity in March-May (MAM) and DJF. During ENSO positive phase, significant negative anomalies in seasonal precipitation indices (amount of wet-day precipitation, number of wet days and intensity of wet-day precipitation) were observed in Indonesia, while opposite results were observed for ENSO negative phase. These findings revealing patterns and drivers for extreme precipitation in APR may inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in the study region.</p>}},
  author       = {{An, Dong and Eggeling, Jakob and Zhang, Linus and He, Hao and Sapkota, Amir and Wang, Yu-Chun and Gao, Chuansi}},
  issn         = {{2045-2322}},
  keywords     = {{El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Extreme Weather; Precipitation intensity; Disasters; Precipitation frequency; spatiotemporal trends}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{07}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Scientific Reports}},
  title        = {{Extreme precipitation patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and its correlation with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38317-0}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41598-023-38317-0}},
  volume       = {{13}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}