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Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models

Blichner, Sara M. ; Yli-Juuti, Taina ; Mielonen, Tero ; Pöhlker, Christopher ; Holopainen, Eemeli ; Heikkinen, Liine ; Mohr, Claudia ; Artaxo, Paulo ; Carbone, Samara and Meller, Bruno Backes , et al. (2024) In Nature Communications 15(1).
Abstract

Natural aerosol feedbacks are expected to become more important in the future, as anthropogenic aerosol emissions decrease due to air quality policy. One such feedback is initiated by the increase in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions with higher temperatures, leading to higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production and a cooling of the surface via impacts on cloud radiative properties. Motivated by the considerable spread in feedback strength in Earth System Models (ESMs), we here use two long-term observational datasets from boreal and tropical forests, together with satellite data, for a process-based evaluation of the BVOC-aerosol-cloud feedback in four ESMs. The model evaluation shows that the weakest modelled... (More)

Natural aerosol feedbacks are expected to become more important in the future, as anthropogenic aerosol emissions decrease due to air quality policy. One such feedback is initiated by the increase in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions with higher temperatures, leading to higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production and a cooling of the surface via impacts on cloud radiative properties. Motivated by the considerable spread in feedback strength in Earth System Models (ESMs), we here use two long-term observational datasets from boreal and tropical forests, together with satellite data, for a process-based evaluation of the BVOC-aerosol-cloud feedback in four ESMs. The model evaluation shows that the weakest modelled feedback estimates can likely be excluded, but highlights compensating errors making it difficult to draw conclusions of the strongest estimates. Overall, the method of evaluating along process chains shows promise in pin-pointing sources of uncertainty and constraining modelled aerosol feedbacks.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nature Communications
volume
15
issue
1
article number
969
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • pmid:38326341
  • scopus:85187156779
ISSN
2041-1723
DOI
10.1038/s41467-024-45001-y
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.
id
3fa0b9bd-e7b7-4e64-b99a-c514a03d5fe7
date added to LUP
2024-03-18 08:11:32
date last changed
2024-04-26 14:46:22
@article{3fa0b9bd-e7b7-4e64-b99a-c514a03d5fe7,
  abstract     = {{<p>Natural aerosol feedbacks are expected to become more important in the future, as anthropogenic aerosol emissions decrease due to air quality policy. One such feedback is initiated by the increase in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions with higher temperatures, leading to higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production and a cooling of the surface via impacts on cloud radiative properties. Motivated by the considerable spread in feedback strength in Earth System Models (ESMs), we here use two long-term observational datasets from boreal and tropical forests, together with satellite data, for a process-based evaluation of the BVOC-aerosol-cloud feedback in four ESMs. The model evaluation shows that the weakest modelled feedback estimates can likely be excluded, but highlights compensating errors making it difficult to draw conclusions of the strongest estimates. Overall, the method of evaluating along process chains shows promise in pin-pointing sources of uncertainty and constraining modelled aerosol feedbacks.</p>}},
  author       = {{Blichner, Sara M. and Yli-Juuti, Taina and Mielonen, Tero and Pöhlker, Christopher and Holopainen, Eemeli and Heikkinen, Liine and Mohr, Claudia and Artaxo, Paulo and Carbone, Samara and Meller, Bruno Backes and Quaresma Dias-Júnior, Cléo and Kulmala, Markku and Petäjä, Tuukka and Scott, Catherine E. and Svenhag, Carl and Nieradzik, Lars and Sporre, Moa and Partridge, Daniel G. and Tovazzi, Emanuele and Virtanen, Annele and Kokkola, Harri and Riipinen, Ilona}},
  issn         = {{2041-1723}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{02}},
  number       = {{1}},
  publisher    = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
  series       = {{Nature Communications}},
  title        = {{Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45001-y}},
  doi          = {{10.1038/s41467-024-45001-y}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}