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What to do with a forecast?

Masterton, George LU (2014) In Synthese 191(8). p.1881-1907
Abstract
In the literature one nds two non-equivalent responses to forecasts; deference and updating. Herein it is demonstrated that, under certain conditions, both responses are entirely determined by one's beliefs as regards the calibration of the forecaster. Further it is argued that the choice as to whether to defer to, or update on, a forecast is determined by the aim of the recipient of that forecast. If the aim of the recipient is to match their credence with the prevailing objective chances, they should defer to the forecast; if it

is to maximize the veritistic value of their beliefs, they should update on the forecast.
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Deference, Forecast, Calibration, Bayesianism
in
Synthese
volume
191
issue
8
pages
1881 - 1907
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000335505900015
  • scopus:84897577417
ISSN
0039-7857
DOI
10.1007/s11229-013-0384-z
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0b2ff1c1-d6f0-4c0b-b6a9-930e321648ce (old id 4191753)
date added to LUP
2013-12-11 08:49:06
date last changed
2017-01-01 05:50:30
@article{0b2ff1c1-d6f0-4c0b-b6a9-930e321648ce,
  abstract     = {In the literature one nds two non-equivalent responses to forecasts; deference and updating. Herein it is demonstrated that, under certain conditions, both responses are entirely determined by one's beliefs as regards the calibration of the forecaster. Further it is argued that the choice as to whether to defer to, or update on, a forecast is determined by the aim of the recipient of that forecast. If the aim of the recipient is to match their credence with the prevailing objective chances, they should defer to the forecast; if it<br/><br>
is to maximize the veritistic value of their beliefs, they should update on the forecast.},
  author       = {Masterton, George},
  issn         = {0039-7857},
  keyword      = {Deference,Forecast,Calibration,Bayesianism},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {8},
  pages        = {1881--1907},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Synthese},
  title        = {What to do with a forecast?},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-013-0384-z},
  volume       = {191},
  year         = {2014},
}