Advanced

A method for linking safety factor to the target probability of failure in fire safety engineering

Kong, Depeng ; Lu, Shouxiang ; Frantzich, Håkan LU and Lo, S. M. (2013) In Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 19. p.212-221
Abstract
Ensuring occupants' safety in building fires is one of the most important aspects for fire safety engineering. Many uncertainties are inevitably introduced when estimating the occupant safety level, due to the high complexity of fire dynamics and the human behaviour in fires. Safety factor methods are traditionally employed to deal with such uncertainties. This kind of methods is easy to apply but leaves fire safety engineers unsure of the margin by which the design has failed. A method of linking safety factor and probability of failure in fire safety engineering is proposed in this study. An event tree is constructed to analyse potential fire scenarios that arise from the failure of fire protection systems. Considering uncertainties... (More)
Ensuring occupants' safety in building fires is one of the most important aspects for fire safety engineering. Many uncertainties are inevitably introduced when estimating the occupant safety level, due to the high complexity of fire dynamics and the human behaviour in fires. Safety factor methods are traditionally employed to deal with such uncertainties. This kind of methods is easy to apply but leaves fire safety engineers unsure of the margin by which the design has failed. A method of linking safety factor and probability of failure in fire safety engineering is proposed in this study. An event tree is constructed to analyse potential fire scenarios that arise from the failure of fire protection systems. Considering uncertainties related to fire dynamics and evacuation, the traditional deterministic safety factor is considered as a random variable. Because there is no target probability of failure accepted by the whole fire safety engineering community, the concept of expected risk to life (ERL) is integrated to determine the target probability of failure. This method employs a Monte Carlo Simulation using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to calculate the required safety factor. A practical case study is conducted using the method proposed in this study. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
probability of failure, safety factor, Monte Carlo simulation, fire, safety engineering, uncertainty analysis
in
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
volume
19
pages
212 - 221
publisher
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
external identifiers
  • wos:000329441900020
  • scopus:84892141047
ISSN
1392-3730
DOI
10.3846/13923730.2013.802718
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3d389f2d-40cf-4e90-b366-82359d7c45da (old id 4326969)
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 10:19:04
date last changed
2020-04-07 01:17:55
@article{3d389f2d-40cf-4e90-b366-82359d7c45da,
  abstract     = {Ensuring occupants' safety in building fires is one of the most important aspects for fire safety engineering. Many uncertainties are inevitably introduced when estimating the occupant safety level, due to the high complexity of fire dynamics and the human behaviour in fires. Safety factor methods are traditionally employed to deal with such uncertainties. This kind of methods is easy to apply but leaves fire safety engineers unsure of the margin by which the design has failed. A method of linking safety factor and probability of failure in fire safety engineering is proposed in this study. An event tree is constructed to analyse potential fire scenarios that arise from the failure of fire protection systems. Considering uncertainties related to fire dynamics and evacuation, the traditional deterministic safety factor is considered as a random variable. Because there is no target probability of failure accepted by the whole fire safety engineering community, the concept of expected risk to life (ERL) is integrated to determine the target probability of failure. This method employs a Monte Carlo Simulation using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to calculate the required safety factor. A practical case study is conducted using the method proposed in this study.},
  author       = {Kong, Depeng and Lu, Shouxiang and Frantzich, Håkan and Lo, S. M.},
  issn         = {1392-3730},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {212--221},
  publisher    = {Vilnius Gediminas Technical University},
  series       = {Journal of Civil Engineering and Management},
  title        = {A method for linking safety factor to the target probability of failure in fire safety engineering},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2013.802718},
  doi          = {10.3846/13923730.2013.802718},
  volume       = {19},
  year         = {2013},
}