Advanced

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

Strandberg, G.; Kjellstrom, E.; Poska, Anneli LU ; Wagner, S.; Gaillard, M. -J.; Trondman, A. -K.; Mauri, A.; Davis, B. A. S.; Kaplan, J. O. and Birks, H. J. B., et al. (2014) In Climate of the Past 10(2). p.661-680
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, similar to 6 and similar to 0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The... (More)
This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, similar to 6 and similar to 0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At similar to 6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5-1 degrees C. At similar to 0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from -1 degrees C in south-western Europe to +1 degrees C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
, et al. (More)
(Less)
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Climate of the Past
volume
10
issue
2
pages
661 - 680
publisher
Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh
external identifiers
  • wos:000335374600016
  • scopus:84897427235
ISSN
1814-9332
DOI
10.5194/cp-10-661-2014
project
BECC
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
660e994f-0ae4-4edf-950f-dfd3db9a8b5c (old id 4487647)
date added to LUP
2014-06-23 15:04:38
date last changed
2017-11-19 03:16:34
@article{660e994f-0ae4-4edf-950f-dfd3db9a8b5c,
  abstract     = {This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, similar to 6 and similar to 0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At similar to 6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5-1 degrees C. At similar to 0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from -1 degrees C in south-western Europe to +1 degrees C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.},
  author       = {Strandberg, G. and Kjellstrom, E. and Poska, Anneli and Wagner, S. and Gaillard, M. -J. and Trondman, A. -K. and Mauri, A. and Davis, B. A. S. and Kaplan, J. O. and Birks, H. J. B. and Bjune, A. E. and Fyfe, R. and Giesecke, T. and Kalnina, L. and Kangur, M. and van der Knaap, W. O. and Kokfelt, Ulla and Kunes, P. and Latalowa, M. and Marquer, L. and Mazier, Florence and Nielsen, Anne Birgitte and Smith, Benjamin and Seppa, H. and Sugita, S.},
  issn         = {1814-9332},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {661--680},
  publisher    = {Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh},
  series       = {Climate of the Past},
  title        = {Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014},
  volume       = {10},
  year         = {2014},
}