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Decision Analysis in Fire Safety Engineering - Analysing Investments in Fire Safety

Tehler, Henrik LU (2003)
Abstract
The application of decision analytical methods to the evaluation of investments in fire safety was investigated, particularly with the aim of being able to suggest a method for analysing a specific investment in fire safety for a specific factory. Attention was directed above all at the handling of cases of large epistemic uncertainty regarding both probabilities and utilities, Bayesian decision theory serving as a basis for the development of the method. Two extensions of the decision rule used in Bayesian decision theory (the principle of maximising expected utility) were suggested for use in the present context. Together with a model for calculating the expected utility of a specific investment, they provide an evaluatory framework for... (More)
The application of decision analytical methods to the evaluation of investments in fire safety was investigated, particularly with the aim of being able to suggest a method for analysing a specific investment in fire safety for a specific factory. Attention was directed above all at the handling of cases of large epistemic uncertainty regarding both probabilities and utilities, Bayesian decision theory serving as a basis for the development of the method. Two extensions of the decision rule used in Bayesian decision theory (the principle of maximising expected utility) were suggested for use in the present context. Together with a model for calculating the expected utility of a specific investment, they provide an evaluatory framework for the analysis of investments in fire safety. The major contributions of the thesis to the area of decision analysis within fire safety engineering are that it provides a better understanding of the use of different decision analytical approaches in a context such as the present one, that it highlights problems of evaluation when large epistemic uncertainties are present, that it suggests a solution for use in such a case, and that it suggests a way in which the reduction in risk can be evaluated in terms of monetary value. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Professor Friis Hansen, Peter, Danmark
organization
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Safety technology, Byggnadsteknik, Building construction, investment appraisal, epistemic uncertainties, fire safety, Decision analysis, risk analysis, Säkerhetsteknik
pages
330 pages
publisher
Department of Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety, Lund University
defense location
Lecture hall: V:A, V-building, John Ericssons väg 1, Lund Institute of Technology
defense date
2003-09-25 13:15:00
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Article: Johansson, H., Decision analysis concerned with investments in fire safety, Proc. 7th International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Worcester, USA, 2002. Article: Johansson, H., Malmnäs, P. -E., Application of Supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment, Accepted for publication in Journal of Fire Protection Engineering. Article: Johansson, H., Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis, Journal of Hazardous Materials, Vol. 93, pp. 77-91, 2002. Article: Johansson, A Bayesian network model for the continual updating of fire risk measurement, Submitted to Fire Science and Technology.
id
e5a36f86-af03-4f03-a2be-49f68a6c32da (old id 466080)
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 16:17:32
date last changed
2018-11-21 20:40:14
@phdthesis{e5a36f86-af03-4f03-a2be-49f68a6c32da,
  abstract     = {The application of decision analytical methods to the evaluation of investments in fire safety was investigated, particularly with the aim of being able to suggest a method for analysing a specific investment in fire safety for a specific factory. Attention was directed above all at the handling of cases of large epistemic uncertainty regarding both probabilities and utilities, Bayesian decision theory serving as a basis for the development of the method. Two extensions of the decision rule used in Bayesian decision theory (the principle of maximising expected utility) were suggested for use in the present context. Together with a model for calculating the expected utility of a specific investment, they provide an evaluatory framework for the analysis of investments in fire safety. The major contributions of the thesis to the area of decision analysis within fire safety engineering are that it provides a better understanding of the use of different decision analytical approaches in a context such as the present one, that it highlights problems of evaluation when large epistemic uncertainties are present, that it suggests a solution for use in such a case, and that it suggests a way in which the reduction in risk can be evaluated in terms of monetary value.},
  author       = {Tehler, Henrik},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {Department of Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety, Lund University},
  school       = {Lund University},
  title        = {Decision Analysis in Fire Safety Engineering - Analysing Investments in Fire Safety},
  url          = {https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/ws/files/4628082/2064108.pdf},
  year         = {2003},
}