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The methodology of predictive design analysis

Eriksson, Martin LU (2014) International Mechanical Engineering Congress & Exposition - IMECE2014 In [Host publication title missing] Volume 11: Systems, Design, and Complexity.
Abstract
From an engineering point of view, uncertainty is present in all areas of design (products, processes and organizations). Computer-based design analysis, here confined to quantitative computer-based structural design analysis within mechanical engineering, serves as an important source of information in decisions taken during the design activity; importantly, it aims at giving confidence in critical design results. It is moreover nowadays used on all levels of concretization of the product-to-be throughout the development process. It must therefore address different uncertainties and errors during the whole development process. To that end, the concept of predictive design analysis (PDA) was introduced. The initial version of PDA treated... (More)
From an engineering point of view, uncertainty is present in all areas of design (products, processes and organizations). Computer-based design analysis, here confined to quantitative computer-based structural design analysis within mechanical engineering, serves as an important source of information in decisions taken during the design activity; importantly, it aims at giving confidence in critical design results. It is moreover nowadays used on all levels of concretization of the product-to-be throughout the development process. It must therefore address different uncertainties and errors during the whole development process. To that end, the concept of predictive design analysis (PDA) was introduced. The initial version of PDA treated primarily uncertainties of aleatory nature and was confined to product/technology-related issues. Today a broader perspective on the uncertainties is needed, and it is important to develop reliable design analysis methods because of the increasing use of design analysis by both analysts and engineering designers. Hence it is therefore necessary to extend the PDA framework into a full-blown methodology. PDA is a specific computer-based design analysis methodology that supports the systematic handling of uncertainties and errors during the computer-based design analysis activity throughout the whole development of the artifact. Such a methodology includes: Not only aleatory uncertainties, but also epistemic uncertainties connected with factors affecting the design analysis activities; Operationally efficient and effective integration between the engineering design and design analysis activities; Quality assurance aspects in terms of quality checks, verification and validation activities taking physical testing into account; Progress monitoring throughout all design analysis activities from clarification to completion; Traceability in utilized information, technologies and established results; Information and knowledge re-use for an improved uncertainty treatment in future design analysis activities through establishment of lessons learned and best practice documentation as well as methodology development.

In this paper the synthesis of the PDA methodology is reported. Starting from an elaboration on different concepts of uncertainty, the constituent elements of the extended PDA methodology are presented. The methodology is then illustrated with a case study. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Maskinkonstruktion, Engineering Design, Machine Design, Uncertainty, Predictive Design Analysis
in
[Host publication title missing]
volume
Volume 11: Systems, Design, and Complexity
pages
15 pages
publisher
American Society Of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
conference name
International Mechanical Engineering Congress & Exposition - IMECE2014
external identifiers
  • Scopus:84926325146
ISBN
978-0-7918-4960-6
DOI
10.1115/IMECE2014-37141
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
962fa2e9-29ba-4ae3-aecb-004b6e6714fe (old id 4813153)
date added to LUP
2015-04-20 09:23:13
date last changed
2017-01-01 07:55:11
@inproceedings{962fa2e9-29ba-4ae3-aecb-004b6e6714fe,
  abstract     = {From an engineering point of view, uncertainty is present in all areas of design (products, processes and organizations). Computer-based design analysis, here confined to quantitative computer-based structural design analysis within mechanical engineering, serves as an important source of information in decisions taken during the design activity; importantly, it aims at giving confidence in critical design results. It is moreover nowadays used on all levels of concretization of the product-to-be throughout the development process. It must therefore address different uncertainties and errors during the whole development process. To that end, the concept of predictive design analysis (PDA) was introduced. The initial version of PDA treated primarily uncertainties of aleatory nature and was confined to product/technology-related issues. Today a broader perspective on the uncertainties is needed, and it is important to develop reliable design analysis methods because of the increasing use of design analysis by both analysts and engineering designers. Hence it is therefore necessary to extend the PDA framework into a full-blown methodology. PDA is a specific computer-based design analysis methodology that supports the systematic handling of uncertainties and errors during the computer-based design analysis activity throughout the whole development of the artifact. Such a methodology includes: Not only aleatory uncertainties, but also epistemic uncertainties connected with factors affecting the design analysis activities; Operationally efficient and effective integration between the engineering design and design analysis activities; Quality assurance aspects in terms of quality checks, verification and validation activities taking physical testing into account; Progress monitoring throughout all design analysis activities from clarification to completion; Traceability in utilized information, technologies and established results; Information and knowledge re-use for an improved uncertainty treatment in future design analysis activities through establishment of lessons learned and best practice documentation as well as methodology development. <br/><br>
In this paper the synthesis of the PDA methodology is reported. Starting from an elaboration on different concepts of uncertainty, the constituent elements of the extended PDA methodology are presented. The methodology is then illustrated with a case study.},
  author       = {Eriksson, Martin},
  booktitle    = {[Host publication title missing]},
  isbn         = {978-0-7918-4960-6},
  keyword      = {Maskinkonstruktion,Engineering Design,Machine Design,Uncertainty,Predictive Design Analysis},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {15},
  publisher    = {American Society Of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)},
  title        = {The methodology of predictive design analysis},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/IMECE2014-37141},
  volume       = {Volume 11: Systems, Design, and Complexity},
  year         = {2014},
}