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Changes in waterbird occurrence and abundance at their northern range boundaries in response to climate warming : importance of site area and protection status

Gaget, E. ; Ovaskainen, O. ; Bradter, U. ; Haas, F. LU orcid ; Jonas, L. ; Johnston, A. ; Langendoen, T. ; Lehikoinen, A. S. LU ; Pärt, T. and Pavón-Jordán, D. , et al. (2024) In Animal Conservation
Abstract

Climate warming is driving changes in species distribution, but habitat characteristics can interact with warming temperatures to affect populations in unexpected ways. We investigated wintering waterbird responses to climate warming depending on habitat characteristics, with a focus on the northern boundary of their non-breeding distributions where winter climatic conditions are more extreme. At these Nordic latitudes, climate warming is expected to drive positive changes in species occurrence and abundance, with likely differences in species-specific responses. We analyzed the occurrence and abundance of 18 species of waterbirds monitored over 2,982 surveys at 245 inland wetlands over a 25-year period in Sweden. We used hierarchical... (More)

Climate warming is driving changes in species distribution, but habitat characteristics can interact with warming temperatures to affect populations in unexpected ways. We investigated wintering waterbird responses to climate warming depending on habitat characteristics, with a focus on the northern boundary of their non-breeding distributions where winter climatic conditions are more extreme. At these Nordic latitudes, climate warming is expected to drive positive changes in species occurrence and abundance, with likely differences in species-specific responses. We analyzed the occurrence and abundance of 18 species of waterbirds monitored over 2,982 surveys at 245 inland wetlands over a 25-year period in Sweden. We used hierarchical modeling of species communities (HMSC) which enabled us to relate species-specific changes to both functional traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We investigated occurrence and abundance changes in response to average temperature, temperature anomalies, site area, site protection status (Natura 2000), and land use in agricultural and urban surfaces. Unsurprisingly, both average temperatures and temperature anomalies were the most important variables influencing positively waterbird occurrence and abundance. For 60% of the species, the effect of temperature anomalies was even stronger in large or protected wetlands. Geese and mallard occurred more often at sites surrounded by agricultural and urban surfaces, respectively, but their occurrence in these habitats was not affected by interactive effects with climate warming. Species abundance was greater inside protected areas only for 11% of the species, but occurrence probability was higher inside protected areas for 44% of the species. Overall, we observed that species thermal affinity was a strong predictor for positive species response to temperature anomalies, and that species sharing similar phylogenetic history had similar relationships with environmental variables. Protection of large wetlands and restoration of the surrounding habitats are two targets for climate change adaptation strategies to facilitate future responses of waterbirds to climate warming.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
climate change, functional traits, HMSC, phylogeny, protected area, Sweden, waterbirds, wetlands
in
Animal Conservation
publisher
Cambridge University Press
external identifiers
  • scopus:85208200243
ISSN
1367-9430
DOI
10.1111/acv.12998
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
48160f04-639c-4465-8dc4-277c3520ad70
date added to LUP
2024-12-11 09:42:11
date last changed
2025-04-04 15:30:34
@article{48160f04-639c-4465-8dc4-277c3520ad70,
  abstract     = {{<p>Climate warming is driving changes in species distribution, but habitat characteristics can interact with warming temperatures to affect populations in unexpected ways. We investigated wintering waterbird responses to climate warming depending on habitat characteristics, with a focus on the northern boundary of their non-breeding distributions where winter climatic conditions are more extreme. At these Nordic latitudes, climate warming is expected to drive positive changes in species occurrence and abundance, with likely differences in species-specific responses. We analyzed the occurrence and abundance of 18 species of waterbirds monitored over 2,982 surveys at 245 inland wetlands over a 25-year period in Sweden. We used hierarchical modeling of species communities (HMSC) which enabled us to relate species-specific changes to both functional traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We investigated occurrence and abundance changes in response to average temperature, temperature anomalies, site area, site protection status (Natura 2000), and land use in agricultural and urban surfaces. Unsurprisingly, both average temperatures and temperature anomalies were the most important variables influencing positively waterbird occurrence and abundance. For 60% of the species, the effect of temperature anomalies was even stronger in large or protected wetlands. Geese and mallard occurred more often at sites surrounded by agricultural and urban surfaces, respectively, but their occurrence in these habitats was not affected by interactive effects with climate warming. Species abundance was greater inside protected areas only for 11% of the species, but occurrence probability was higher inside protected areas for 44% of the species. Overall, we observed that species thermal affinity was a strong predictor for positive species response to temperature anomalies, and that species sharing similar phylogenetic history had similar relationships with environmental variables. Protection of large wetlands and restoration of the surrounding habitats are two targets for climate change adaptation strategies to facilitate future responses of waterbirds to climate warming.</p>}},
  author       = {{Gaget, E. and Ovaskainen, O. and Bradter, U. and Haas, F. and Jonas, L. and Johnston, A. and Langendoen, T. and Lehikoinen, A. S. and Pärt, T. and Pavón-Jordán, D. and Sandercock, B. K. and Soultan, A. and Brommer, J. E.}},
  issn         = {{1367-9430}},
  keywords     = {{climate change; functional traits; HMSC; phylogeny; protected area; Sweden; waterbirds; wetlands}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  series       = {{Animal Conservation}},
  title        = {{Changes in waterbird occurrence and abundance at their northern range boundaries in response to climate warming : importance of site area and protection status}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/acv.12998}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/acv.12998}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}