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Towards a holistic prioritization of climate-change risks for bridges

Nasr, Amro LU ; Björnsson, Ivar LU ; HONFI, DANIEL LU ; Larsson Ivanov, Oskar LU ; Johansson, Jonas LU and Kjellström, Erik (2019) 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
Abstract
Although the projected changes in the climate include considerable uncertainties, especially with downscaling, there is irrefutable evidence that the climate is changing at an unprecedented and alarming rate. In recent studies, some of the potential climate-change risks on bridges have been identified. The sheer number of these potential risks provokes two questions. Firstly, for a certain risk of interest (e.g. increased scour rate) which bridges should be prioritized from an inventory of bridges? Secondly, for a specific bridge, which of these risks are more critical? This paper proposes a method that can be used for addressing these two questions while considering the uncertainties intrinsic to the problem. Although this paper focuses... (More)
Although the projected changes in the climate include considerable uncertainties, especially with downscaling, there is irrefutable evidence that the climate is changing at an unprecedented and alarming rate. In recent studies, some of the potential climate-change risks on bridges have been identified. The sheer number of these potential risks provokes two questions. Firstly, for a certain risk of interest (e.g. increased scour rate) which bridges should be prioritized from an inventory of bridges? Secondly, for a specific bridge, which of these risks are more critical? This paper proposes a method that can be used for addressing these two questions while considering the uncertainties intrinsic to the problem. Although this paper focuses on addressing the first question, a discussion on how the proposed method can be used for answering the second is also presented. The suggested method is based on four risk components; namely: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and consequences. In spite of being specifically tailored for bridges, the developed method can be easily extended to other types of infrastructure. The proposed method is a step towards an improved climate-change risk management. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
host publication
Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13, Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019.
conference name
13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
conference location
Seoul, Korea, Republic of
conference dates
2019-05-26 - 2019-05-30
DOI
10.22725/ICASP13.263
project
Climate change impact on safety and performance of existing and future infrastructure
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4d4097b9-88ab-4285-a237-8c40de86dcb6
alternative location
http://s-space.snu.ac.kr/handle/10371/153433
date added to LUP
2019-05-14 14:00:00
date last changed
2020-05-03 08:08:53
@inproceedings{4d4097b9-88ab-4285-a237-8c40de86dcb6,
  abstract     = {Although the projected changes in the climate include considerable uncertainties, especially with downscaling, there is irrefutable evidence that the climate is changing at an unprecedented and alarming rate. In recent studies, some of the potential climate-change risks on bridges have been identified. The sheer number of these potential risks provokes two questions. Firstly, for a certain risk of interest (e.g. increased scour rate) which bridges should be prioritized from an inventory of bridges? Secondly, for a specific bridge, which of these risks are more critical? This paper proposes a method that can be used for addressing these two questions while considering the uncertainties intrinsic to the problem. Although this paper focuses on addressing the first question, a discussion on how the proposed method can be used for answering the second is also presented. The suggested method is based on four risk components; namely: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and consequences. In spite of being specifically tailored for bridges, the developed method can be easily extended to other types of infrastructure. The proposed method is a step towards an improved climate-change risk management.},
  author       = {Nasr, Amro and Björnsson, Ivar and HONFI, DANIEL and Larsson Ivanov, Oskar and Johansson, Jonas and Kjellström, Erik},
  booktitle    = {Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13, Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019.},
  language     = {eng},
  title        = {Towards a holistic prioritization of climate-change risks for bridges},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.22725/ICASP13.263},
  doi          = {10.22725/ICASP13.263},
  year         = {2019},
}