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The Covid-19 lesson from Sweden: Don't lock down

Andersson, Fredrik N G LU and Jonung, Lars LU (2024) In Economic Affairs p.1-14
Abstract
Covid-19 triggered a wave of lockdowns across the world, contributing to a severe downturn in economic activity. Governments responded by introducing expansionary fiscal and monetary measures. We compare the health and economic outcomes in Sweden, commonly viewed as an outlier relying more on recommendations and voluntary adjustments than on strict lockdowns, with those of comparable European OECD countries. Our results suggest that the Swedish policy of advice and trust in the population to reduce social interactions voluntarily was relatively successful. Sweden combined low excess death rates with relatively small economic costs. In future pandemics, policymakers should rely on empirical evidence rather than panicking and adopting... (More)
Covid-19 triggered a wave of lockdowns across the world, contributing to a severe downturn in economic activity. Governments responded by introducing expansionary fiscal and monetary measures. We compare the health and economic outcomes in Sweden, commonly viewed as an outlier relying more on recommendations and voluntary adjustments than on strict lockdowns, with those of comparable European OECD countries. Our results suggest that the Swedish policy of advice and trust in the population to reduce social interactions voluntarily was relatively successful. Sweden combined low excess death rates with relatively small economic costs. In future pandemics, policymakers should rely on empirical evidence rather than panicking and adopting extreme measures. Even if policymakers appeared to act rapidly and decisively, the rushed implementation of strict lockdowns in 2020/21 probably did more harm than good. (Less)
Abstract (Swedish)
Covid-19 triggered a wave of lockdowns across the world, contributing to a severe downturn in economic activity. Governments responded by introducing expansionary fiscal and monetary measures. We compare the health and economic outcomes in Sweden, commonly viewed as an outlier relying more on recommendations and voluntary adjustments than on strict lockdowns, with those of comparable European OECD countries. Our results suggest that the Swedish policy of advice and trust in the population to reduce social interactions voluntarily was relatively successful. Sweden combined low excess death rates with relatively small economic costs. In future pandemics, policymakers should rely on empirical evidence rather than panicking and adopting... (More)
Covid-19 triggered a wave of lockdowns across the world, contributing to a severe downturn in economic activity. Governments responded by introducing expansionary fiscal and monetary measures. We compare the health and economic outcomes in Sweden, commonly viewed as an outlier relying more on recommendations and voluntary adjustments than on strict lockdowns, with those of comparable European OECD countries. Our results suggest that the Swedish policy of advice and trust in the population to reduce social interactions voluntarily was relatively successful. Sweden combined low excess death rates with relatively small economic costs. In future pandemics, policymakers should rely on empirical evidence rather than panicking and adopting extreme measures. Even if policymakers appeared to act rapidly and decisively, the rushed implementation of strict lockdowns in 2020/21 probably did more harm than good. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
covid19, pandemic, econmic crisis, excess mortality, fiscal policy, lockdowns, monetary policy, public debt
in
Economic Affairs
pages
1 - 14
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • scopus:85184485791
ISSN
1468-0270
DOI
10.1111/ecaf.12611
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4e64d6a9-e4e6-435d-83fb-3a4d796476a6
date added to LUP
2024-02-12 13:10:20
date last changed
2024-03-18 02:19:20
@article{4e64d6a9-e4e6-435d-83fb-3a4d796476a6,
  abstract     = {{Covid-19 triggered a wave of lockdowns across the world, contributing to a severe downturn in economic activity. Governments responded by introducing expansionary fiscal and monetary measures. We compare the health and economic outcomes in Sweden, commonly viewed as an outlier relying more on recommendations and voluntary adjustments than on strict lockdowns, with those of comparable European OECD countries. Our results suggest that the Swedish policy of advice and trust in the population to reduce social interactions voluntarily was relatively successful. Sweden combined low excess death rates with relatively small economic costs. In future pandemics, policymakers should rely on empirical evidence rather than panicking and adopting extreme measures. Even if policymakers appeared to act rapidly and decisively, the rushed implementation of strict lockdowns in 2020/21 probably did more harm than good.}},
  author       = {{Andersson, Fredrik N G and Jonung, Lars}},
  issn         = {{1468-0270}},
  keywords     = {{covid19; pandemic; econmic crisis; excess mortality; fiscal policy; lockdowns; monetary policy; public debt}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{02}},
  pages        = {{1--14}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
  series       = {{Economic Affairs}},
  title        = {{The Covid-19 lesson from Sweden: Don't lock down}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12611}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/ecaf.12611}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}