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RESPECT the UNSTABLE : DELAYS and SATURATION in CONTACT TRACING for DISEASE CONTROL

Pates, Richard LU ; Ferragut, Andres ; Pivo, Elijah ; You, Pengcheng ; Paganini, Fernando and Mallada, Enrique (2022) In SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 60(2). p.196-220
Abstract

Motivated by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, this paper aims to apply Gunter Stein's cautionary message of respecting the unstable to the problem of controlling the spread of an infectious disease. With this goal, we study the effect that delays and capacity constraints have in the test, trace, and isolate (TeTrIs) process, and how they impact its ability to prevent exponential disease spread. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of speed and scale in the TeTrIs process. Precisely, ensuring that the delay in the TeTrIs process is much smaller than the doubling time of the disease spread is necessary for achieving acceptable performance. Similarly, limited TeTrIs capacity introduces a threshold on the size... (More)

Motivated by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, this paper aims to apply Gunter Stein's cautionary message of respecting the unstable to the problem of controlling the spread of an infectious disease. With this goal, we study the effect that delays and capacity constraints have in the test, trace, and isolate (TeTrIs) process, and how they impact its ability to prevent exponential disease spread. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of speed and scale in the TeTrIs process. Precisely, ensuring that the delay in the TeTrIs process is much smaller than the doubling time of the disease spread is necessary for achieving acceptable performance. Similarly, limited TeTrIs capacity introduces a threshold on the size of an outbreak beyond which the disease spreads almost like the uncontrolled case. Along the way, we provide numerical illustrations to highlight these points.

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author
; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
COVID-19, epidemic spread, feedback control, stabilization
in
SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization
volume
60
issue
2
pages
196 - 220
publisher
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
external identifiers
  • scopus:85130608366
ISSN
0363-0129
DOI
10.1137/20M1377825
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4ef75f7c-aeb1-4caf-832b-253dd76edf3a
date added to LUP
2022-12-08 11:45:20
date last changed
2023-11-20 07:35:32
@article{4ef75f7c-aeb1-4caf-832b-253dd76edf3a,
  abstract     = {{<p>Motivated by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, this paper aims to apply Gunter Stein's cautionary message of respecting the unstable to the problem of controlling the spread of an infectious disease. With this goal, we study the effect that delays and capacity constraints have in the test, trace, and isolate (TeTrIs) process, and how they impact its ability to prevent exponential disease spread. Our analysis highlights the critical importance of speed and scale in the TeTrIs process. Precisely, ensuring that the delay in the TeTrIs process is much smaller than the doubling time of the disease spread is necessary for achieving acceptable performance. Similarly, limited TeTrIs capacity introduces a threshold on the size of an outbreak beyond which the disease spreads almost like the uncontrolled case. Along the way, we provide numerical illustrations to highlight these points.</p>}},
  author       = {{Pates, Richard and Ferragut, Andres and Pivo, Elijah and You, Pengcheng and Paganini, Fernando and Mallada, Enrique}},
  issn         = {{0363-0129}},
  keywords     = {{COVID-19; epidemic spread; feedback control; stabilization}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  pages        = {{196--220}},
  publisher    = {{Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics}},
  series       = {{SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization}},
  title        = {{RESPECT the UNSTABLE : DELAYS and SATURATION in CONTACT TRACING for DISEASE CONTROL}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/20M1377825}},
  doi          = {{10.1137/20M1377825}},
  volume       = {{60}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}