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Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change.

Kristensen, Nadiah LU ; Johansson, Jacob LU ; Ripa, Jörgen LU and Jonzén, Niclas LU (2015) In Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences 282(1807).
Abstract
In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits-arrival date and hatching date-and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey... (More)
In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits-arrival date and hatching date-and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits. (Less)
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences
volume
282
issue
1807
publisher
Royal Society
external identifiers
  • pmid:25904668
  • wos:000353351100010
  • scopus:84928914680
ISSN
1471-2954
DOI
10.1098/rspb.2015.0288
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d4f484a3-dfeb-4334-8675-1890a267915c (old id 5340880)
date added to LUP
2015-04-30 12:22:56
date last changed
2017-02-05 03:07:34
@article{d4f484a3-dfeb-4334-8675-1890a267915c,
  abstract     = {In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits-arrival date and hatching date-and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.},
  author       = {Kristensen, Nadiah and Johansson, Jacob and Ripa, Jörgen and Jonzén, Niclas},
  issn         = {1471-2954},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1807},
  publisher    = {Royal Society},
  series       = {Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences},
  title        = {Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0288},
  volume       = {282},
  year         = {2015},
}