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Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison

Andresen, Christian G. ; Lawrence, David M. ; Wilson, Cathy J. ; David McGuire, A. ; Koven, Charles ; Schaefer, Kevin ; Jafarov, Elchin ; Peng, Shushi ; Chen, Xiaodong and Gouttevin, Isabelle , et al. (2020) In Cryosphere 14(2). p.445-459
Abstract

This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections... (More)

This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Cryosphere
volume
14
issue
2
pages
15 pages
publisher
Copernicus GmbH
external identifiers
  • scopus:85079124172
ISSN
1994-0416
DOI
10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f
date added to LUP
2020-02-20 13:57:34
date last changed
2022-04-18 20:42:06
@article{546966b5-9e1d-4a96-93b4-a0f3188fc84f,
  abstract     = {{<p>This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.</p>}},
  author       = {{Andresen, Christian G. and Lawrence, David M. and Wilson, Cathy J. and David McGuire, A. and Koven, Charles and Schaefer, Kevin and Jafarov, Elchin and Peng, Shushi and Chen, Xiaodong and Gouttevin, Isabelle and Burke, Eleanor and Chadburn, Sarah and Ji, Duoying and Chen, Guangsheng and Hayes, Daniel and Zhang, Wenxin}},
  issn         = {{1994-0416}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{02}},
  number       = {{2}},
  pages        = {{445--459}},
  publisher    = {{Copernicus GmbH}},
  series       = {{Cryosphere}},
  title        = {{Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020}},
  doi          = {{10.5194/tc-14-445-2020}},
  volume       = {{14}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}