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Anchoring and subjective belief distributions

Holm, Håkan J. LU ; Samahita, Margaret LU ; van Veldhuizen, Roel LU orcid and Wengström, Erik LU (2025) In Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 240.
Abstract

We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences subjective belief distributions. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on the underlying distribution and its higher moments remains unexplored. Using two pre-registered online experiments (N = 1467) and two elicitation methods, we find that anchoring impacts not just the mean, but also higher moments of belief distributions. Notably, the traditional anchoring effect in means diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than point estimates. We also find that the elicitation method matters: inattentive participants generate spiky distributions when manually entering numbers... (More)

We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences subjective belief distributions. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on the underlying distribution and its higher moments remains unexplored. Using two pre-registered online experiments (N = 1467) and two elicitation methods, we find that anchoring impacts not just the mean, but also higher moments of belief distributions. Notably, the traditional anchoring effect in means diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than point estimates. We also find that the elicitation method matters: inattentive participants generate spiky distributions when manually entering numbers for many bins, whereas they generate flat distributions using a click-and-drag interface. These findings show that cognitive biases can extend beyond point estimates, and that the elicitation technique may impact results especially among inattentive participants.

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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Anchoring, Belief elicitation, Heuristics and biases, D73, C91, K42
in
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
volume
240
article number
107304
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:105021233277
ISSN
0167-2681
DOI
10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107304
language
English
LU publication?
yes
additional info
Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Authors
id
56d97151-691b-494a-bfc2-845267918cda
date added to LUP
2025-11-20 13:39:23
date last changed
2025-11-20 14:07:03
@article{56d97151-691b-494a-bfc2-845267918cda,
  abstract     = {{<p>We investigate how the anchoring effect—a well-established cognitive bias—influences subjective belief distributions. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on the underlying distribution and its higher moments remains unexplored. Using two pre-registered online experiments (N = 1467) and two elicitation methods, we find that anchoring impacts not just the mean, but also higher moments of belief distributions. Notably, the traditional anchoring effect in means diminishes when eliciting distributions rather than point estimates. We also find that the elicitation method matters: inattentive participants generate spiky distributions when manually entering numbers for many bins, whereas they generate flat distributions using a click-and-drag interface. These findings show that cognitive biases can extend beyond point estimates, and that the elicitation technique may impact results especially among inattentive participants.</p>}},
  author       = {{Holm, Håkan J. and Samahita, Margaret and van Veldhuizen, Roel and Wengström, Erik}},
  issn         = {{0167-2681}},
  keywords     = {{Anchoring; Belief elicitation; Heuristics and biases; D73; C91; K42}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization}},
  title        = {{Anchoring and subjective belief distributions}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107304}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107304}},
  volume       = {{240}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}