Radiation Doses and Lifetime Attributable Risk of Cancer in Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident
Tondel, Martin ; Gabrysch, Katja ; Isaksson, Mats LU and Rääf, Christopher LU
(2026)
In Health Physics
130.
- Abstract
—Methods for estimating radiological consequences in terms of radiation doses and cancer risks are needed for informed decisions on mitigation efforts after a radionuclide event. The 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident fallout in Sweden was used as a case study. Open-source data on annual sex-specific population data in 1-y classes by municipality (n = 290), counties (n = 21), and future projection were retrieved from Statistics Sweden from 1986 to 2035. Published organ dose coefficients, cancer risk coefficients, and established methods for dose calculations and cancer risk projections were applied to estimate organ absorbed doses (mGy), effective dose (mSv), collective dose (person-Sv), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR).... (More)
—Methods for estimating radiological consequences in terms of radiation doses and cancer risks are needed for informed decisions on mitigation efforts after a radionuclide event. The 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident fallout in Sweden was used as a case study. Open-source data on annual sex-specific population data in 1-y classes by municipality (n = 290), counties (n = 21), and future projection were retrieved from Statistics Sweden from 1986 to 2035. Published organ dose coefficients, cancer risk coefficients, and established methods for dose calculations and cancer risk projections were applied to estimate organ absorbed doses (mGy), effective dose (mSv), collective dose (person-Sv), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Due to the geographically variable Chernobyl fallout in Sweden, the variability in absorbed organ doses was greater between municipalities and counties than between organs or sexes. LAR was translated into 377 male and 448 female extra cancer cases over 50 y post-Chernobyl. Overall, 38% of these cancer cases could be attributed to the internal dose in males and 32% in females. The highest number of cancer cases was estimated for Västernorrland county, with only 3% of the Swedish population in 1986, but 18% of the excess cancer cases 1986 to 2035. The collective dose was calculated to 6,028 person-Sv, whereas 2,148 person-Sv (36%) was internal dose. Like for LAR, the population of Västernorrland county got 18% of the total collective dose. The excess number of cancer cases derived from LAR and collective dose gave similar results. Our methods can be adopted to other countries and different fallout scenarios.
(Less)
- author
- Tondel, Martin
; Gabrysch, Katja
; Isaksson, Mats
LU
and Rääf, Christopher
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- cancer, Chernobyl, dose, absorbed, health effects
- in
- Health Physics
- volume
- 130
- publisher
- Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105008685564
- pmid:40512872
- ISSN
- 0017-9078
- DOI
- 10.1097/HP.0000000000001998
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the Health Physics Society.
- id
- 573a2690-0aa0-4e62-8449-ae9d76bdd674
- date added to LUP
- 2026-01-26 15:22:47
- date last changed
- 2026-01-27 03:00:04
@article{573a2690-0aa0-4e62-8449-ae9d76bdd674,
abstract = {{<p>—Methods for estimating radiological consequences in terms of radiation doses and cancer risks are needed for informed decisions on mitigation efforts after a radionuclide event. The 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident fallout in Sweden was used as a case study. Open-source data on annual sex-specific population data in 1-y classes by municipality (n = 290), counties (n = 21), and future projection were retrieved from Statistics Sweden from 1986 to 2035. Published organ dose coefficients, cancer risk coefficients, and established methods for dose calculations and cancer risk projections were applied to estimate organ absorbed doses (mGy), effective dose (mSv), collective dose (person-Sv), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Due to the geographically variable Chernobyl fallout in Sweden, the variability in absorbed organ doses was greater between municipalities and counties than between organs or sexes. LAR was translated into 377 male and 448 female extra cancer cases over 50 y post-Chernobyl. Overall, 38% of these cancer cases could be attributed to the internal dose in males and 32% in females. The highest number of cancer cases was estimated for Västernorrland county, with only 3% of the Swedish population in 1986, but 18% of the excess cancer cases 1986 to 2035. The collective dose was calculated to 6,028 person-Sv, whereas 2,148 person-Sv (36%) was internal dose. Like for LAR, the population of Västernorrland county got 18% of the total collective dose. The excess number of cancer cases derived from LAR and collective dose gave similar results. Our methods can be adopted to other countries and different fallout scenarios.</p>}},
author = {{Tondel, Martin and Gabrysch, Katja and Isaksson, Mats and Rääf, Christopher}},
issn = {{0017-9078}},
keywords = {{cancer; Chernobyl; dose, absorbed; health effects}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Lippincott Williams & Wilkins}},
series = {{Health Physics}},
title = {{Radiation Doses and Lifetime Attributable Risk of Cancer in Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/HP.0000000000001998}},
doi = {{10.1097/HP.0000000000001998}},
volume = {{130}},
year = {{2026}},
}