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Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations

Jonung, Lars LU (1986) In Journal of Economic Psychology 7(3). p.315-325
Abstract
This article reports the result of a survey designed to investigate the degree of uncertainty by which a representative sample of Swedish households hold their perceptions and expectations of inflation. The public displays hardly any uncertainty concerning the direction of change of the price level as measured by the ratio of ‘don't know’ answers. However, when asked for numerical estimates of the perceived and expected rate of inflation, uncertainty increases considerably. The ratio of ‘don't know’ answers is now about 45 per cent. Respondents giving numerical measures were asked to rank how certain they felt about their answers. The majority of them felt they were ‘rather certain’. A major difference in certainty was found between men... (More)
This article reports the result of a survey designed to investigate the degree of uncertainty by which a representative sample of Swedish households hold their perceptions and expectations of inflation. The public displays hardly any uncertainty concerning the direction of change of the price level as measured by the ratio of ‘don't know’ answers. However, when asked for numerical estimates of the perceived and expected rate of inflation, uncertainty increases considerably. The ratio of ‘don't know’ answers is now about 45 per cent. Respondents giving numerical measures were asked to rank how certain they felt about their answers. The majority of them felt they were ‘rather certain’. A major difference in certainty was found between men and women. No major differences existed across age, place of living and education. The major conclusion of this study is that the public does not hold its inflationary perceptions and expectations with complete certainty as commonly assumed. (Less)
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author
organization
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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Journal of Economic Psychology
volume
7
issue
3
pages
11 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:38249038859
ISSN
1872-7719
DOI
10.1016/0167-4870(86)90023-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
57f641df-dc51-4e8f-bc92-c8208f43a81d
alternative location
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-38249038859&doi=10.1016%2f0167-4870%2886%2990023-1&partnerID=40&md5=2d8520c0f078121c1cadf2a1ba8aeb0f
date added to LUP
2017-02-23 10:42:27
date last changed
2017-03-14 09:07:18
@article{57f641df-dc51-4e8f-bc92-c8208f43a81d,
  abstract     = {This article reports the result of a survey designed to investigate the degree of uncertainty by which a representative sample of Swedish households hold their perceptions and expectations of inflation. The public displays hardly any uncertainty concerning the direction of change of the price level as measured by the ratio of ‘don't know’ answers. However, when asked for numerical estimates of the perceived and expected rate of inflation, uncertainty increases considerably. The ratio of ‘don't know’ answers is now about 45 per cent. Respondents giving numerical measures were asked to rank how certain they felt about their answers. The majority of them felt they were ‘rather certain’. A major difference in certainty was found between men and women. No major differences existed across age, place of living and education. The major conclusion of this study is that the public does not hold its inflationary perceptions and expectations with complete certainty as commonly assumed.},
  author       = {Jonung, Lars},
  issn         = {1872-7719},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {315--325},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Journal of Economic Psychology},
  title        = {Uncertainty about inflationary perceptions and expectations},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-4870(86)90023-1},
  volume       = {7},
  year         = {1986},
}