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Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment

Tehler, Henrik LU and Malmnäs, Per-Erik (2004) In Journal of Fire Protection Engineering 14(1). p.55-84
Abstract
The application of Supersoft Decision theory (SSD) to fire safety problems, and of decision analysis in general to decisions involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty, are discussed. SSD and two traditional decision analytic methods employed earlier within the context of fire engineering are compared, particularly regarding how uncertainties are dealt with and the robustness of decisions – robustness concerning the likelihood that the alternative adjudged to be best will change when a reasonable degree of change in assessments of either the probabilities or the utilities involved occurs. Substantial differences between the three methods in decision robustness were noted. It was found that, since traditional decision analysis... (More)
The application of Supersoft Decision theory (SSD) to fire safety problems, and of decision analysis in general to decisions involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty, are discussed. SSD and two traditional decision analytic methods employed earlier within the context of fire engineering are compared, particularly regarding how uncertainties are dealt with and the robustness of decisions – robustness concerning the likelihood that the alternative adjudged to be best will change when a reasonable degree of change in assessments of either the probabilities or the utilities involved occurs. Substantial differences between the three methods in decision robustness were noted. It was found that, since traditional decision analysis involving precise probability and utility values gives no indication of robustness, it can lead to incorrect conclusions, making it unsuitable in the present context. It is argued that methods not providing the decision maker with information on decision robustness are unsuitable in situations involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty. A procedure is suggested involving use of Supersoft Decision theory and extended decision analysis to facilitate the choice between different fire protection alternatives for the case of a specific building. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
epistemic uncertainty, supersoft decision theory, decision analysis, fire risk analysis
in
Journal of Fire Protection Engineering
volume
14
issue
1
pages
55 - 84
publisher
SAGE Publications Inc.
external identifiers
  • scopus:1342324760
ISSN
1042-3915
DOI
10.1177/1042391504035523
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
34750f2a-a73f-4642-a537-4d4db481bd31 (old id 585281)
date added to LUP
2007-11-07 12:01:16
date last changed
2017-01-01 08:06:52
@article{34750f2a-a73f-4642-a537-4d4db481bd31,
  abstract     = {The application of Supersoft Decision theory (SSD) to fire safety problems, and of decision analysis in general to decisions involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty, are discussed. SSD and two traditional decision analytic methods employed earlier within the context of fire engineering are compared, particularly regarding how uncertainties are dealt with and the robustness of decisions – robustness concerning the likelihood that the alternative adjudged to be best will change when a reasonable degree of change in assessments of either the probabilities or the utilities involved occurs. Substantial differences between the three methods in decision robustness were noted. It was found that, since traditional decision analysis involving precise probability and utility values gives no indication of robustness, it can lead to incorrect conclusions, making it unsuitable in the present context. It is argued that methods not providing the decision maker with information on decision robustness are unsuitable in situations involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty. A procedure is suggested involving use of Supersoft Decision theory and extended decision analysis to facilitate the choice between different fire protection alternatives for the case of a specific building.},
  author       = {Tehler, Henrik and Malmnäs, Per-Erik},
  issn         = {1042-3915},
  keyword      = {epistemic uncertainty,supersoft decision theory,decision analysis,fire risk analysis},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {55--84},
  publisher    = {SAGE Publications Inc.},
  series       = {Journal of Fire Protection Engineering},
  title        = {Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1042391504035523},
  volume       = {14},
  year         = {2004},
}