Advanced

Studies on Poverty in Mongolia

Naranhuu, Bolor LU (2007)
Abstract (Swedish)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

Den här avhandlingen studerar olika aspekter av fattigdom i Mongoliet, bland annat skattningar av dess storlek, effekter av fördelning och tillväxt förändringar samt olika policy besluts inverkan.



Kapitel två analyserar förhållandet mellan fattigdom, tillväxt och ojämlikhet i Mongoliet. Analysen visar att sannolikheten att ett hushåll är fattigt beror på dess utbildning, sysselsättning, tillgång till finansiella marknader och det geografiska läget. Det finns dock ingen signifikant skillnad mellan stad och landsbygd. Dessutom visar analysen att ökad ojämlikhet var en betydligt viktigare faktor än ökade inkomster bakom fattigdomsökningen mellan 1998 och 2002. Till sist visar... (More)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

Den här avhandlingen studerar olika aspekter av fattigdom i Mongoliet, bland annat skattningar av dess storlek, effekter av fördelning och tillväxt förändringar samt olika policy besluts inverkan.



Kapitel två analyserar förhållandet mellan fattigdom, tillväxt och ojämlikhet i Mongoliet. Analysen visar att sannolikheten att ett hushåll är fattigt beror på dess utbildning, sysselsättning, tillgång till finansiella marknader och det geografiska läget. Det finns dock ingen signifikant skillnad mellan stad och landsbygd. Dessutom visar analysen att ökad ojämlikhet var en betydligt viktigare faktor än ökade inkomster bakom fattigdomsökningen mellan 1998 och 2002. Till sist visar simuleringar att tillväxt i service- och jordbrukssektorn kan reducera fattigdomen mer än tillväxt i industrisektorn.



Kapitel tre studerar hur utsatta de Mongoliska hushållen är för fattigdom, både permanent och tillfällig fattigdom. Resultaten visar att sannolikheten att bli fattig är lika stor som mängden fattiga vilket implicerar att det finns ingen signifikant risk att fattigdomen skulle öka under den närmaste tiden. Hushåll på landsbygden löper högre risk att bli fattiga och är mer utsatta för permanent fattigdom än hushåll i urbana områden. Hushåll i städerna är i större utsträckning utsatta för tillfällig fattigdom. Fattigdom i Mongoliet är övervägande permanent fattigdom varför fattigdomsminskande åtgärder skulle ha en större effekt än förebyggande åtgärder på den totala fattigdomen.



Kapitel fyra analyserar effekterna på landsbygdsfattigdom av en liberalisering av kashmir handeln i termer av transaktionskostnader. Studien visar att om en liberalisering hade genomförts skulle fattigdomen minska och om kashmir producenterna hade blivit mer aktiva på marknaden kunde den minska ytterligare. Dessutom visar resultaten att de variabla transaktionskostnaderna påverkar hushållens försäljningsbeslut av kashmir, medan de fasta transaktionskostnaderna förklarar till viss del deras försäljning av livsmedel. Det finns dock inget signifikant samband mellan fasta transaktionskostnaderna och hushållens försäljning av andra varor än livsmedel. Till sista visar resultaten att de variabla transaktionskostnaderna påverkar de fattiga hushållens försäljningsbeslut men inte övriga producenters beslut. (Less)
Abstract
This thesis considers various aspects of the poverty in Mongolia, including estimations of the actual as well as future-looking poverty, its distributional and growth components, and selected policy impacts on poverty.



Chapter two analyzes the inter-relationship between poverty, growth, and inequality in Mongolia, using Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS) for 1998 and 2002. The results show that education, employment, access to social and physical infrastructure, financial markets, and geographical location determine the households? likelihood of being poor. There is no significant difference between the determinants of poverty in urban and rural areas, however. Furthermore, the poverty decomposition exercises... (More)
This thesis considers various aspects of the poverty in Mongolia, including estimations of the actual as well as future-looking poverty, its distributional and growth components, and selected policy impacts on poverty.



Chapter two analyzes the inter-relationship between poverty, growth, and inequality in Mongolia, using Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS) for 1998 and 2002. The results show that education, employment, access to social and physical infrastructure, financial markets, and geographical location determine the households? likelihood of being poor. There is no significant difference between the determinants of poverty in urban and rural areas, however. Furthermore, the poverty decomposition exercises reveal that increasing inequality played a far more important role than income growth in the poverty increase between 1998 and 2002. Finally, the simulation results show that the growth in the service and agricultural sectors are able to reduce the overall poverty level to a larger extent than the industrial sector's expansion.



Chapter three assesses household vulnerability to poverty as well as chronic and transient poverty in Mongolia. The estimation results, using Chaudhuri's method and LSMS 2002, show that vulnerability to poverty in Mongolia is about the same as the observed poverty rate, which is not the case, however, in most of the empirical case studies. It means that there is no significant high risk of poverty increase due to idiosyncratic shocks in the near future. Vulnerability and chronic poverty are mostly rural phenomena in Mongolia, while most of the transient poverty exists in the urban areas. The chronically poor households basically constitute the total poverty in Mongolia, implying that poverty reduction rather than preventive measures, more specifically, capability and capacity-enhancing policies, such as human capital investment and micro-credit programs, would reduce the total poverty in this country.



Chapter four analyzes the effects of cashmere trade liberalization on the rural poverty in terms of transaction costs effects, using the LSMS 1998. The empirical studies in this chapter show that if a trade policy reform had been introduced in the cashmere sector, poverty would have been reduced. If the market participation of the cashmere producers had been increased, poverty would have been reduced even further. Moreover, they show that the variable transaction costs have an influence on the households? decisions on marketing raw cashmere, and that the fixed transaction costs may explain to some extent the marketing regime for the foods produced by them. However, there is no statistical evidence showing that the fixed transaction costs affect both marketing size and regime for the other non-food products. Finally, the estimation results show that the variable transaction costs are crucial both for market participation and the supply of raw cashmere for the poor-herders, but not for the non-poor ones. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Professor Bigsten, Arne, Department of Economics, Gothenburg University
organization
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
economic policy, Nationalekonomi, ekonometri, ekonomisk teori, ekonomiska system, ekonomisk politik, Economics of development, Utvecklingsekonomi, economic systems, economic theory, econometrics, Economics, Mongolia, Transaction costs, Trade liberalization, Chronic poverty, Transient poverty, Inequality, Vulnerability, Poverty, Growth
pages
120 pages
publisher
Department of Economics, Lund Universtiy
defense location
EC3:210, Holger Crafoords Ekonomicentrum, Lund
defense date
2007-06-08 13:15
ISSN
0460-0029
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
bf17af07-2085-43a0-a99c-0fb9f2a337a2 (old id 598744)
date added to LUP
2007-11-13 08:43:05
date last changed
2016-09-19 08:44:56
@phdthesis{bf17af07-2085-43a0-a99c-0fb9f2a337a2,
  abstract     = {This thesis considers various aspects of the poverty in Mongolia, including estimations of the actual as well as future-looking poverty, its distributional and growth components, and selected policy impacts on poverty.<br/><br>
<br/><br>
Chapter two analyzes the inter-relationship between poverty, growth, and inequality in Mongolia, using Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS) for 1998 and 2002. The results show that education, employment, access to social and physical infrastructure, financial markets, and geographical location determine the households? likelihood of being poor. There is no significant difference between the determinants of poverty in urban and rural areas, however. Furthermore, the poverty decomposition exercises reveal that increasing inequality played a far more important role than income growth in the poverty increase between 1998 and 2002. Finally, the simulation results show that the growth in the service and agricultural sectors are able to reduce the overall poverty level to a larger extent than the industrial sector's expansion.<br/><br>
<br/><br>
Chapter three assesses household vulnerability to poverty as well as chronic and transient poverty in Mongolia. The estimation results, using Chaudhuri's method and LSMS 2002, show that vulnerability to poverty in Mongolia is about the same as the observed poverty rate, which is not the case, however, in most of the empirical case studies. It means that there is no significant high risk of poverty increase due to idiosyncratic shocks in the near future. Vulnerability and chronic poverty are mostly rural phenomena in Mongolia, while most of the transient poverty exists in the urban areas. The chronically poor households basically constitute the total poverty in Mongolia, implying that poverty reduction rather than preventive measures, more specifically, capability and capacity-enhancing policies, such as human capital investment and micro-credit programs, would reduce the total poverty in this country.<br/><br>
<br/><br>
Chapter four analyzes the effects of cashmere trade liberalization on the rural poverty in terms of transaction costs effects, using the LSMS 1998. The empirical studies in this chapter show that if a trade policy reform had been introduced in the cashmere sector, poverty would have been reduced. If the market participation of the cashmere producers had been increased, poverty would have been reduced even further. Moreover, they show that the variable transaction costs have an influence on the households? decisions on marketing raw cashmere, and that the fixed transaction costs may explain to some extent the marketing regime for the foods produced by them. However, there is no statistical evidence showing that the fixed transaction costs affect both marketing size and regime for the other non-food products. Finally, the estimation results show that the variable transaction costs are crucial both for market participation and the supply of raw cashmere for the poor-herders, but not for the non-poor ones.},
  author       = {Naranhuu, Bolor},
  issn         = {0460-0029},
  keyword      = {economic policy,Nationalekonomi,ekonometri,ekonomisk teori,ekonomiska system,ekonomisk politik,Economics of development,Utvecklingsekonomi,economic systems,economic theory,econometrics,Economics,Mongolia,Transaction costs,Trade liberalization,Chronic poverty,Transient poverty,Inequality,Vulnerability,Poverty,Growth},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {120},
  publisher    = {Department of Economics, Lund Universtiy},
  school       = {Lund University},
  title        = {Studies on Poverty in Mongolia},
  year         = {2007},
}