Substantial Differences in Crop Yield Sensitivities Between Models Call for Functionality-Based Model Evaluation
(2024) In Earth's Future 12(3).- Abstract
Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change and typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analyzed modeled crop yield response types using impact response surfaces along four drivers of crop yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N). Crop yield response types help to understand differences in simulated responses per driver and their combinations rather than aggregated changes in yields as the result of simultaneous changes in various drivers. We find that models' sensitivities to the individual drivers are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. There is some agreement... (More)
Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change and typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analyzed modeled crop yield response types using impact response surfaces along four drivers of crop yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N). Crop yield response types help to understand differences in simulated responses per driver and their combinations rather than aggregated changes in yields as the result of simultaneous changes in various drivers. We find that models' sensitivities to the individual drivers are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response types across models and their configurations suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model evaluation based on emergent functionality not only against historical yield observations but also against dedicated experiments across different drivers to analyze emergent functional patterns of crop models.
(Less)
- author
- organization
- publishing date
- 2024
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- AgMIP, crop model, evaluation, global, sensitivity, uncertainty
- in
- Earth's Future
- volume
- 12
- issue
- 3
- article number
- e2023EF003773
- publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85187877700
- ISSN
- 2328-4277
- DOI
- 10.1029/2023EF003773
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 5d642fe9-a6ce-4fc1-840a-e1f8277cda1e
- date added to LUP
- 2024-04-10 14:54:17
- date last changed
- 2024-04-19 15:06:51
@article{5d642fe9-a6ce-4fc1-840a-e1f8277cda1e,
abstract = {{<p>Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change and typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analyzed modeled crop yield response types using impact response surfaces along four drivers of crop yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N). Crop yield response types help to understand differences in simulated responses per driver and their combinations rather than aggregated changes in yields as the result of simultaneous changes in various drivers. We find that models' sensitivities to the individual drivers are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response types across models and their configurations suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model evaluation based on emergent functionality not only against historical yield observations but also against dedicated experiments across different drivers to analyze emergent functional patterns of crop models.</p>}},
author = {{Müller, Christoph and Jägermeyr, Jonas and Franke, James A. and Ruane, Alex C. and Balkovic, Juraj and Ciais, Philippe and Dury, Marie and Falloon, Pete and Folberth, Christian and Hank, Tobias and Hoffmann, Munir and Izaurralde, R. Cesar and Jacquemin, Ingrid and Khabarov, Nikolay and Liu, Wenfeng and Olin, Stefan and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Wang, Xuhui and Williams, Karina and Zabel, Florian and Elliott, Joshua W.}},
issn = {{2328-4277}},
keywords = {{AgMIP; crop model; evaluation; global; sensitivity; uncertainty}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{3}},
publisher = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
series = {{Earth's Future}},
title = {{Substantial Differences in Crop Yield Sensitivities Between Models Call for Functionality-Based Model Evaluation}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003773}},
doi = {{10.1029/2023EF003773}},
volume = {{12}},
year = {{2024}},
}