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On the association between weather variability and total and cause-specific mortality before and during industrialization in Sweden

Oudin Åström, Daniel LU ; Edvinsson, Sören ; Hondula, David; Rocklöv, Joacim and Schumann, Barbara (2016) In Demographic Research 35. p.991-1010
Abstract (Swedish)
BACKGROUND While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.
OBJECTIVE
To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.
METHODS
We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800–1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series... (More)
BACKGROUND While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.
OBJECTIVE
To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.
METHODS
We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800–1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800−1859, 1860–1909, and 1910–1950.
RESULTS We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.
CONCLUSIONS
Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.
CONTRIBUTION
The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Demographic Research
volume
35
pages
991 - 1010
publisher
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
external identifiers
  • scopus:85006957200
ISSN
1435-9871
DOI
10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.33
language
Swedish
LU publication?
yes
id
5d6a2811-41ce-40db-bce1-1f37f5fa81a3
date added to LUP
2016-12-05 09:18:49
date last changed
2017-02-26 04:43:26
@article{5d6a2811-41ce-40db-bce1-1f37f5fa81a3,
  abstract     = {BACKGROUND While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.<br/>OBJECTIVE<br/>To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.<br/>METHODS<br/>We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800–1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800−1859, 1860–1909, and 1910–1950.<br/>RESULTS We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.<br/>CONCLUSIONS<br/>Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.<br/>CONTRIBUTION<br/>The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality.},
  articleno    = {33},
  author       = {Oudin Åström, Daniel and Edvinsson, Sören  and  Hondula, David and Rocklöv, Joacim and Schumann, Barbara },
  issn         = {1435-9871},
  language     = {swe},
  month        = {10},
  pages        = {991--1010},
  publisher    = {Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research},
  series       = {Demographic Research},
  title        = {On the association between weather variability and total and cause-specific mortality before and during industrialization in Sweden},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.33},
  volume       = {35},
  year         = {2016},
}