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Risk-based Industrial Site Optimization

Runefors, Marcus LU orcid ; Hassel, Henrik LU ; Ingvarson, Johan LU and Wilkens Flecknoe-Brown, Konrad LU orcid (2026) ESREL 2026
Abstract
A key consideration in the design of a new industrial site is the spatial arrangement of units with respect to required safety distances. Safety distance requirements are intended to reduce the risk of hazardous events escalating from their origin to other units as well as to limit the damage to particularly vulnerable targets (e.g., control rooms), and are typically based on industrial standards (e.g., EIGA, CGA), which rely on credible worst case scenarios, acceptable escalation frequencies or fixed values – the latter often without clear justification. This paper proposes an optimization algorithm that aims to minimize total site cost by balancing land use and interconnection costs (e.g., for pipes and cables), while ensuring compliance... (More)
A key consideration in the design of a new industrial site is the spatial arrangement of units with respect to required safety distances. Safety distance requirements are intended to reduce the risk of hazardous events escalating from their origin to other units as well as to limit the damage to particularly vulnerable targets (e.g., control rooms), and are typically based on industrial standards (e.g., EIGA, CGA), which rely on credible worst case scenarios, acceptable escalation frequencies or fixed values – the latter often without clear justification. This paper proposes an optimization algorithm that aims to minimize total site cost by balancing land use and interconnection costs (e.g., for pipes and cables), while ensuring compliance with required safety constraints. For each planned unit, the risk of escalation is represented using an F-D curve – a function analogous to the traditional F-N curve, but with escalation distance (D) on the x-axis. This is provided for each pair of unit types. The escalation distance is the distance at which a secondary hazardous event occurs for a given scenario, e.g., spread of fire from one tank to another. Due to the high degrees of freedom, the problem is numerically challenging since it has many local optimization minima. To address this challenge, optimization is performed using the best1bin
differential evolution algorithm which is specifically tailored to address non-monotonic problems. The resulting site layouts can be visualized in a 2D scatter plot, where each circle represents a unit and the extent of the scatter is the required lot size. The algorithm can be used both to generate early-stage input to concept development of siting projects and for theoretical investigations into optimal clustering, central placement, and proximity to lot boundaries for different unit types. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Safety distance, Optimization, Domino effects, Facility siting, Process equipment
host publication
Proceedings of the 36th European Safety and Reliability Conference
editor
Matos, José C ; Lourenço, Paolo B ; Beer, Michael ; Oliveira, Daniel and Patelli, Eduardo
pages
8 pages
publisher
Research Publishing, Singapore
conference name
ESREL 2026
conference location
Braga, Portugal
conference dates
2026-06-14 - 2026-06-19
ISBN
978-981-94-6718-1
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5d91884b-b744-4a47-b47c-afd0b8252acf
alternative location
https://cmsweb.com.sg/rps2prod/esrel2026/epro/pdf/esrel26-p26215.pdf
date added to LUP
2026-06-29 11:38:04
date last changed
2026-08-27 12:42:20
@inproceedings{5d91884b-b744-4a47-b47c-afd0b8252acf,
  abstract     = {{A key consideration in the design of a new industrial site is the spatial arrangement of units with respect to required safety distances. Safety distance requirements are intended to reduce the risk of hazardous events escalating from their origin to other units as well as to limit the damage to particularly vulnerable targets (e.g., control rooms), and are typically based on industrial standards (e.g., EIGA, CGA), which rely on credible worst case scenarios, acceptable escalation frequencies or fixed values – the latter often without clear justification. This paper proposes an optimization algorithm that aims to minimize total site cost by balancing land use and interconnection costs (e.g., for pipes and cables), while ensuring compliance with required safety constraints. For each planned unit, the risk of escalation is represented using an F-D curve – a function analogous to the traditional F-N curve, but with escalation distance (D) on the x-axis. This is provided for each pair of unit types. The escalation distance is the distance at which a secondary hazardous event occurs for a given scenario, e.g., spread of fire from one tank to another. Due to the high degrees of freedom, the problem is numerically challenging since it has many local optimization minima. To address this challenge, optimization is performed using the best1bin <br/>differential evolution algorithm which is specifically tailored to address non-monotonic problems. The resulting site layouts can be visualized in a 2D scatter plot, where each circle represents a unit and the extent of the scatter is the required lot size. The algorithm can be used both to generate early-stage input to concept development of siting projects and for theoretical investigations into optimal clustering, central placement, and proximity to lot boundaries for different unit types.}},
  author       = {{Runefors, Marcus and Hassel, Henrik and Ingvarson, Johan and Wilkens Flecknoe-Brown, Konrad}},
  booktitle    = {{Proceedings of the 36th European Safety and Reliability Conference}},
  editor       = {{Matos, José C and Lourenço, Paolo B and Beer, Michael and Oliveira, Daniel and Patelli, Eduardo}},
  isbn         = {{978-981-94-6718-1}},
  keywords     = {{Safety distance; Optimization; Domino effects; Facility siting; Process equipment}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Research Publishing, Singapore}},
  title        = {{Risk-based Industrial Site Optimization}},
  url          = {{https://cmsweb.com.sg/rps2prod/esrel2026/epro/pdf/esrel26-p26215.pdf}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}