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Contagion models for the transmission of drug abuse among propinquity-of-rearing defined acquaintances : A Swedish national study

Kendler, Kenneth S. ; Ohlsson, Henrik LU ; Sundquist, Jan LU and Sundquist, Kristina LU (2019) In Drug and Alcohol Dependence 201. p.94-100
Abstract

Background: Can we validate a contagion model for drug abuse (DA) in Propinquity-of-Rearing Defined Acquaintances (PRDAs)? Methods: PRDAs were defined as pairs of same-age males born 1975–1990 who grew up within 2 km of each other, one of whom (PRDA1) being first registered for DA in national registries. Using adult residential location, we predicted, using regression splines, proximity-dependent risk for DA first registration in a second PRDA (PRDA2) within 3 years of PRDA1′s registration. Results: In 181,743 PRDA pairs, the best-fit model, controlling for age and PRDA2 community risk, included 2 slopes of proximity-risk relationships in childhood and three in adulthood. Risk for DA in PRDA2 was strongly predicted by childhood... (More)

Background: Can we validate a contagion model for drug abuse (DA) in Propinquity-of-Rearing Defined Acquaintances (PRDAs)? Methods: PRDAs were defined as pairs of same-age males born 1975–1990 who grew up within 2 km of each other, one of whom (PRDA1) being first registered for DA in national registries. Using adult residential location, we predicted, using regression splines, proximity-dependent risk for DA first registration in a second PRDA (PRDA2) within 3 years of PRDA1′s registration. Results: In 181,743 PRDA pairs, the best-fit model, controlling for age and PRDA2 community risk, included 2 slopes of proximity-risk relationships in childhood and three in adulthood. Risk for DA in PRDA2 was strongly predicted by childhood proximity to PRDA1: 0 to 0.5 km – Hazard ratio (HR) per kilometer 0.52 and 0.6–2 km 0.78. HRs for PRDA2 as a function of adult proximity to PRDA1 were: 0–1 km 0.887, 1–75 km 0.996 and >75 km 0.9997. Proximity-dependent PRDA2 risk was moderated by age, familial risk and educational attainment, attenuated by increasing PRDA1-PRDA2 age differences and stronger for older to younger versus younger to older pairs. Conclusions: Transmission of DA risk between acquaintances growing up together was attenuated by increasing distance in adulthood. Strength of the acquaintance, indexed by childhood propinquity and age difference, modified transmission strength. The impact of adult proximity on transmission was reduced in acquaintances with higher resistance to DA due to older age, higher educational attainment or lower familial risk. Our results support the validity of DA contagion models.

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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Age differences, Drug abuse, Familial risk, Geocoded data, Males, Social transmission
in
Drug and Alcohol Dependence
volume
201
pages
7 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85067068904
  • pmid:31203149
ISSN
0376-8716
DOI
10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.03.027
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5dab735f-5bde-4dae-85c4-06b2dacf0a33
date added to LUP
2019-06-26 13:10:22
date last changed
2024-03-03 17:42:42
@article{5dab735f-5bde-4dae-85c4-06b2dacf0a33,
  abstract     = {{<p>Background: Can we validate a contagion model for drug abuse (DA) in Propinquity-of-Rearing Defined Acquaintances (PRDAs)? Methods: PRDAs were defined as pairs of same-age males born 1975–1990 who grew up within 2 km of each other, one of whom (PRDA1) being first registered for DA in national registries. Using adult residential location, we predicted, using regression splines, proximity-dependent risk for DA first registration in a second PRDA (PRDA2) within 3 years of PRDA1′s registration. Results: In 181,743 PRDA pairs, the best-fit model, controlling for age and PRDA2 community risk, included 2 slopes of proximity-risk relationships in childhood and three in adulthood. Risk for DA in PRDA2 was strongly predicted by childhood proximity to PRDA1: 0 to 0.5 km – Hazard ratio (HR) per kilometer 0.52 and 0.6–2 km 0.78. HRs for PRDA2 as a function of adult proximity to PRDA1 were: 0–1 km 0.887, 1–75 km 0.996 and &gt;75 km 0.9997. Proximity-dependent PRDA2 risk was moderated by age, familial risk and educational attainment, attenuated by increasing PRDA1-PRDA2 age differences and stronger for older to younger versus younger to older pairs. Conclusions: Transmission of DA risk between acquaintances growing up together was attenuated by increasing distance in adulthood. Strength of the acquaintance, indexed by childhood propinquity and age difference, modified transmission strength. The impact of adult proximity on transmission was reduced in acquaintances with higher resistance to DA due to older age, higher educational attainment or lower familial risk. Our results support the validity of DA contagion models.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kendler, Kenneth S. and Ohlsson, Henrik and Sundquist, Jan and Sundquist, Kristina}},
  issn         = {{0376-8716}},
  keywords     = {{Age differences; Drug abuse; Familial risk; Geocoded data; Males; Social transmission}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  pages        = {{94--100}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Drug and Alcohol Dependence}},
  title        = {{Contagion models for the transmission of drug abuse among propinquity-of-rearing defined acquaintances : A Swedish national study}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.03.027}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.03.027}},
  volume       = {{201}},
  year         = {{2019}},
}