Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
Howard, C. ; Lindström, Å. LU
and Willis, S.G.
(2023)
In Nature Communications
14(1).
- Abstract
- Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction... (More)
- Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. © 2023, The Author(s). (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5e4bcd2b-6047-46f2-8bec-54db3fd2881a
- author
- Howard, C.
; Lindström, Å.
LU
and Willis, S.G.
- author collaboration
- organization
- publishing date
- 2023
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Animals, Birds, Climate Change, Ecosystem, bird, breeding population, climate change, climate conditions, colonization, endangered species, land cover, range expansion, article, breeding, climate, expectation, forecasting, land use, mass extinction, nonhuman, probability, animal, ecosystem
- in
- Nature Communications
- volume
- 14
- issue
- 1
- article number
- 4304
- publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85165465504
- ISSN
- 2041-1723
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 5e4bcd2b-6047-46f2-8bec-54db3fd2881a
- date added to LUP
- 2023-11-15 10:03:25
- date last changed
- 2023-11-15 10:05:12
@article{5e4bcd2b-6047-46f2-8bec-54db3fd2881a,
abstract = {{Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. © 2023, The Author(s).}},
author = {{Howard, C. and Lindström, Å. and Willis, S.G.}},
issn = {{2041-1723}},
keywords = {{Animals; Birds; Climate Change; Ecosystem; bird; breeding population; climate change; climate conditions; colonization; endangered species; land cover; range expansion; article; breeding; climate; expectation; forecasting; land use; mass extinction; nonhuman; probability; animal; ecosystem}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{1}},
publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
series = {{Nature Communications}},
title = {{Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1}},
doi = {{10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1}},
volume = {{14}},
year = {{2023}},
}