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Solar-climatic relationship and implications for hydrology

Berndtsson, R. LU ; Uvo, C. LU ; Matsumoto, M. ; Jinno, K. ; Kawamura, A. ; Xu, S. LU and Olsson, J. LU (2001) In Nordic Hydrology 32(2). p.65-84
Abstract

Research during the latest years has indicated a significant connection between climate and solar activity. Specifically, a relationship between Northern Hemisphere air temperature and sunspot cycle length (SCL) has been shown. By using monthly SCL and land air temperature from 1753-1990 (238 years) we show that this relationship also holds for a single observation point in south of Sweden. Using data after 1850 yields a statistically significant linear correlation of 0.54 between SCL and mean temperature. Furthermore, we show that there are indications of a low-dimensional chaotic component in both SCL and the interconnected mean land air temperature. This has important implications for hydrology and water resources applications. By... (More)

Research during the latest years has indicated a significant connection between climate and solar activity. Specifically, a relationship between Northern Hemisphere air temperature and sunspot cycle length (SCL) has been shown. By using monthly SCL and land air temperature from 1753-1990 (238 years) we show that this relationship also holds for a single observation point in south of Sweden. Using data after 1850 yields a statistically significant linear correlation of 0.54 between SCL and mean temperature. Furthermore, we show that there are indications of a low-dimensional chaotic component in both SCL and the interconnected mean land air temperature. This has important implications for hydrology and water resources applications. By pure definition of chaos this means that it is virtually impossible to make long-term predictions of mean temperature. Similarly, because of the strong connection between temperature and many hydrological components, it is probable that also long-term water balance constituents may follow chaotic trajectories. Long-term projections of water resources availability may therefore be impossible. Repeated short-term predictions may, however, still be viable. We exemplify this by showing a technique to predict interpolated mean temperature 6 and 12 months ahead in real time with encouraging results. Improving the technique further may be possible by including information on the SCL attractor. To summarize, research into the possible existence of chaotic components in hydrological processes should be an important task for the next years to come.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Nordic Hydrology
volume
32
issue
2
pages
20 pages
publisher
IWA Publishing
external identifiers
  • scopus:0034915720
ISSN
0029-1277
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5f17b98d-4c88-4d19-9771-2d9f5c9aa886
date added to LUP
2018-11-01 12:23:13
date last changed
2020-01-13 01:07:38
@article{5f17b98d-4c88-4d19-9771-2d9f5c9aa886,
  abstract     = {<p>Research during the latest years has indicated a significant connection between climate and solar activity. Specifically, a relationship between Northern Hemisphere air temperature and sunspot cycle length (SCL) has been shown. By using monthly SCL and land air temperature from 1753-1990 (238 years) we show that this relationship also holds for a single observation point in south of Sweden. Using data after 1850 yields a statistically significant linear correlation of 0.54 between SCL and mean temperature. Furthermore, we show that there are indications of a low-dimensional chaotic component in both SCL and the interconnected mean land air temperature. This has important implications for hydrology and water resources applications. By pure definition of chaos this means that it is virtually impossible to make long-term predictions of mean temperature. Similarly, because of the strong connection between temperature and many hydrological components, it is probable that also long-term water balance constituents may follow chaotic trajectories. Long-term projections of water resources availability may therefore be impossible. Repeated short-term predictions may, however, still be viable. We exemplify this by showing a technique to predict interpolated mean temperature 6 and 12 months ahead in real time with encouraging results. Improving the technique further may be possible by including information on the SCL attractor. To summarize, research into the possible existence of chaotic components in hydrological processes should be an important task for the next years to come.</p>},
  author       = {Berndtsson, R. and Uvo, C. and Matsumoto, M. and Jinno, K. and Kawamura, A. and Xu, S. and Olsson, J.},
  issn         = {0029-1277},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {01},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {65--84},
  publisher    = {IWA Publishing},
  series       = {Nordic Hydrology},
  title        = {Solar-climatic relationship and implications for hydrology},
  volume       = {32},
  year         = {2001},
}