Evaluation of the European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society derived three-and four-strata risk stratification models in pulmonary arterial hypertension : Introducing an internet-based risk stratification calculator
Ahmed, Abdulla LU
; Ahmed, Salaheldin
LU
; Kempe, Daniel
and Rådegran, Göran
LU
(2023)
In European Heart Journal Open
3(2).
- Abstract
Aims: Estimation of prognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) has been influenced by that various risk stratification models use different numbers of prognostic parameters, as well as the lack of a comprehensive and time-saving risk assessment calculator. We therefore evaluated the various European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-/European Respiratory Society (ERS)-based three-and four-strata risk stratification models and established a comprehensive internet-based calculator to facilitate risk assessment. Methods and results: Between 1 January 2000 and 26 July 2021, 773 clinical assessments on 169 incident PAH patients were evaluated at diagnosis and follow-ups. Risk scores were calculated using the original Swedish Pulmonary... (More)
Aims: Estimation of prognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) has been influenced by that various risk stratification models use different numbers of prognostic parameters, as well as the lack of a comprehensive and time-saving risk assessment calculator. We therefore evaluated the various European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-/European Respiratory Society (ERS)-based three-and four-strata risk stratification models and established a comprehensive internet-based calculator to facilitate risk assessment. Methods and results: Between 1 January 2000 and 26 July 2021, 773 clinical assessments on 169 incident PAH patients were evaluated at diagnosis and follow-ups. Risk scores were calculated using the original Swedish Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Registry (SPAHR)/Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) three-strata model, the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, and the simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata model. The original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models were tested for both 3-6 and 7-11 available parameters, respectively. Prognostic accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC)] and Uno's cumulative/time-dependent C-statistics (uAUC) were calculated for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At baseline, both the original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models, using up to six parameters, provided the highest accuracy (uAUC = 0.73 for both models) in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At follow-ups, the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk (7-11 parameters) provided the highest accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality (uAUC = 0.90), followed by the original SPAHR/COMPERA model (7-11 parameters) (uAUC = 0.88) and the COMPERA 2.0 model (uAUC = 0.85). Conclusions: The present study facilitates risk assessment in PAH by introducing a comprehensive internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification). At baseline, utilizing the original or the updated SPAHR models using up to six parameters was favourable, the latter model additionally offering sub-characterization of the intermediate risk group. Our findings support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' strategy for risk stratification suggesting the utilization of a three-strata model at baseline and a simplified four-strata model at follow-ups. Our findings furthermore support the utility of the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk, when a more comprehensive assessment is needed at follow-ups, complementing the three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 model. Larger multi-centre studies are encouraged to validate the utility of the updated SPAHR model. Take home message: By introducing an internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification), risk assessment is facilitated. Our results support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' risk stratification strategy, additionally suggesting the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, as a promising complement to the new simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata strategy, when a more comprehensive overview is needed.
(Less)
- author
- Ahmed, Abdulla
LU
; Ahmed, Salaheldin
LU
; Kempe, Daniel
and Rådegran, Göran
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2023-03-01
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Follow-up, Prognosis, Pulmonary arterial hypertension, Risk stratification
- in
- European Heart Journal Open
- volume
- 3
- issue
- 2
- article number
- oead012
- publisher
- Oxford University Press
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:36959867
- scopus:85159630784
- ISSN
- 2752-4191
- DOI
- 10.1093/ehjopen/oead012
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
- id
- 62bd131d-0793-4dcb-8cf9-eeb5b40d317d
- date added to LUP
- 2023-06-05 21:41:28
- date last changed
- 2024-04-19 22:38:03
@article{62bd131d-0793-4dcb-8cf9-eeb5b40d317d,
abstract = {{<p>Aims: Estimation of prognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) has been influenced by that various risk stratification models use different numbers of prognostic parameters, as well as the lack of a comprehensive and time-saving risk assessment calculator. We therefore evaluated the various European Society of Cardiology (ESC)-/European Respiratory Society (ERS)-based three-and four-strata risk stratification models and established a comprehensive internet-based calculator to facilitate risk assessment. Methods and results: Between 1 January 2000 and 26 July 2021, 773 clinical assessments on 169 incident PAH patients were evaluated at diagnosis and follow-ups. Risk scores were calculated using the original Swedish Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Registry (SPAHR)/Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) three-strata model, the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, and the simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata model. The original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models were tested for both 3-6 and 7-11 available parameters, respectively. Prognostic accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC)] and Uno's cumulative/time-dependent C-statistics (uAUC) were calculated for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At baseline, both the original SPAHR/COMPERA and the updated SPAHR models, using up to six parameters, provided the highest accuracy (uAUC = 0.73 for both models) in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality. At follow-ups, the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk (7-11 parameters) provided the highest accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality (uAUC = 0.90), followed by the original SPAHR/COMPERA model (7-11 parameters) (uAUC = 0.88) and the COMPERA 2.0 model (uAUC = 0.85). Conclusions: The present study facilitates risk assessment in PAH by introducing a comprehensive internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification). At baseline, utilizing the original or the updated SPAHR models using up to six parameters was favourable, the latter model additionally offering sub-characterization of the intermediate risk group. Our findings support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' strategy for risk stratification suggesting the utilization of a three-strata model at baseline and a simplified four-strata model at follow-ups. Our findings furthermore support the utility of the updated SPAHR model with divided intermediate risk, when a more comprehensive assessment is needed at follow-ups, complementing the three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 model. Larger multi-centre studies are encouraged to validate the utility of the updated SPAHR model. Take home message: By introducing an internet-based risk score calculator (https://www.svefph.se/risk-stratification), risk assessment is facilitated. Our results support the 2022 ESC/ERS pulmonary hypertension guidelines' risk stratification strategy, additionally suggesting the updated SPAHR three-strata model with divided intermediate risk, as a promising complement to the new simplified three-parameter COMPERA 2.0 four-strata strategy, when a more comprehensive overview is needed.</p>}},
author = {{Ahmed, Abdulla and Ahmed, Salaheldin and Kempe, Daniel and Rådegran, Göran}},
issn = {{2752-4191}},
keywords = {{Follow-up; Prognosis; Pulmonary arterial hypertension; Risk stratification}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{03}},
number = {{2}},
publisher = {{Oxford University Press}},
series = {{European Heart Journal Open}},
title = {{Evaluation of the European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society derived three-and four-strata risk stratification models in pulmonary arterial hypertension : Introducing an internet-based risk stratification calculator}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ehjopen/oead012}},
doi = {{10.1093/ehjopen/oead012}},
volume = {{3}},
year = {{2023}},
}