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Road characteristics and environment factors associated with motorcycle fatal crashes in Malaysia

Abdul Manan, Muhammad Marizwan; Várhelyi, András LU ; Çelik, Ali Kemal and Hashim, Hizal Hanis (2017) In IATSS Research
Abstract

This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during... (More)

This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00. am to 6. am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70. km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7. pm to 12. pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70. km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.

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Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
Environmental factors, Motorcycle multi vehicle crash, Motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, Multinomial logit and mixed logit, Road characteristics
in
IATSS Research
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85035016680
ISSN
0386-1112
DOI
10.1016/j.iatssr.2017.11.001
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6adcf488-dfad-41f3-8998-4d27ab56e3ce
date added to LUP
2017-12-11 08:06:37
date last changed
2018-01-07 12:28:03
@article{6adcf488-dfad-41f3-8998-4d27ab56e3ce,
  abstract     = {<p>This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00. am to 6. am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70. km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7. pm to 12. pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70. km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.</p>},
  author       = {Abdul Manan, Muhammad Marizwan and Várhelyi, András and Çelik, Ali Kemal and Hashim, Hizal Hanis},
  issn         = {0386-1112},
  keyword      = {Environmental factors,Motorcycle multi vehicle crash,Motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash,Multinomial logit and mixed logit,Road characteristics},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {11},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {IATSS Research},
  title        = {Road characteristics and environment factors associated with motorcycle fatal crashes in Malaysia},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iatssr.2017.11.001},
  year         = {2017},
}